IWM rose by 0.5% this week; my account fell 1.1%. The loss-floor has fallen to -7.6%.
End of week allocations:
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FNSR: Ouch! This stock dropped 8% on Thursday, with no news other than that some VP sold a small fraction of his holdings. Thankfully I had put only 10% of my money into it, so I lost only 0.8%.
[out]: I have withdrawn 10% of the money from this account, to put food on the table for my family. I need a new job quick!
Next Monday: The robot has issued a “sell” order for FNSR.
Double-TRIX trading model
Tweak: previously, this model would buy at the opening price and would refuse to place an order if the preceding closing price was greater than SMA(q). Now it places a limit order for the SMA(q) price, which means the purchase might fail to go through (another limit-buy could be placed for the following day if conditions are still copacetic). This is a huge improvement in situations (such as the one YHOO was in last month) where the stock keeps rising and stays above SMA(q) for weeks on end, so I would never buy it. Now the robot will buy as soon as price momentarily pierces the average on its low for a day, even if its closes are never below average. Still, this wouldn’t have helped with YHOO, which didn’t even touch its average for a month.
I have added a new ticker for this model. Parameters:| (daily) | ||
| Model ticker: | FRED | |
|---|---|---|
| Trade ticker | FRED | |
| TRIX(q) | 26 | |
| TRIX(s) | 54 | |
| SMA(q) | 2 | |
| SMA(s) | 150 | |
| CHANDELIER(c⁺,a⁺) | 32, 4.9 | |
| CHANDELIER(c⁻,a⁻) | 25, 4.6 | |
| RETEST(w,m) | 5, 1.005 |
Stock-trading robot
The model-data shown below include the effect of the new tweak, even though I didn’t install the tweak until Wednesday so earlier trades aren’t actually “wrong”.
To deal with the new buy-limit orders, the table below shows the “Model buy-date” without a time unless the limit is above the opening price, in which case the buy-time should have been 09:30 (if the limit is below the open but above the low, the purchase happened “sometime” that day). The “Model sell-date” continues to show the time as 09:30 because those are market-price orders and always go through at the open.
To make the “Acct Profit” figures more accurate, I now adjust the Model profit based on the size of the position (the model assumes that the position size is always 10%, but sometimes I buy more or less to get an even multiple of 100 shares for non-ETF tickers).
| Ticker Symbol | Buy date | Buy price | Sell date | Sell price | Acct Profit | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model | Actual | M | A | Model | Actual | M | A | M | A | ||||||
| URTY | OC 17 13:00 | OC 17 13:30 | $75.24 | $75.00 | (Not yet) | ||||||||||
| FNSR | OC 22 | OC 21 09:30 | $26.10 | $26.06 | (Not yet) | ||||||||||
| YHOO | OC 23 | OC 21 09:30 | $33.57 | $33.65 | OC 25 09:30 | OC 24 16:41 | $32.40 | $33.03 | -0.48% | -0.26% | |||||
| UWM | OC 23 | OC 24 09:30 | $78.25 | $78.07 | (Not yet) | ||||||||||
| FRED | OC 18 | OC 24 09:30 | $16.11 | $16.59 | (Not yet) | ||||||||||
| AGQ | OC 25 09:30 | $21.10 | $21.07 | (Not yet) | |||||||||||
FNSR: New model says I should have bought later (price was below SMA(q) at Friday’s close, but stayed above it all day Monday). Buy-price about the same either way.
YHOO: Stayed above SMA(q) all day Monday and
again on Tuesday, so should have bought on Wednesday for a slightly-better
price.
On Thursday, the robot had a problem because it didn’t have historical
data for FRED. So I fixed that and reran the daily update —
which created duplicate OC 24 price-records for all tickers! This caused
the robot to say that I should have sold YHOO that morning, so I
sold it after hours. Later I removed the duplicate records and determined
that the sale was supposed to be Friday morning — got a better price,
anyway.
FRED: I characterized this model quite some time ago, but was waiting for a “Sell” signal before enabling it for trading. Well, the Sell came and went and I didn’t notice! So this purchase was late.
AGQ: Normal trade using new tweaked system. Now sure why I got a better price than the official open.
