Saturday, 25 June 2011

Week of 2011 JN 24

I lost 0.5% this week, while SPY lost only 0.2%.  About 0.4% of my loss was due to TYH, which on Thursday dropped 4%, triggered my stop, then rose 6% after President Obama announced that he was selling some SPR oil.  I’m sick to death of stops and will be phasing them out of my trading plan.

The “two week rally” fizzled after two days.  This market is too bearish so I’ll be avoiding equitites for awhile.

At least my “average gain” is positive for a change!

Daily % gainStop %Realized
Symb size since Fri Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Beg End
IAU 20% MR24 4.5 4.5 4.7 4.7 4.3 3.9 +3.5 +4.0 +4.0%
DRETF 19% MR30 -4.3 -2.9 -1.8 -1.6 -2.5 -3.2
PALL 6% MA06 3.5 3.5 5.0 4.7 3.6 2.4 +2.7 +2.7 +2.7%
TLT 12% MA25 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.6 −2.8 −2.0 AU20
FRED 7% MA31 -0.6 -0.1 0.8 -1.7 -0.5 -2.1 −10.9 −6.6 AU20
CGO 6% JN15 -0.2 -0.8 -0.3 0.6 -0.1 0.1 −4.4 −4.4 JN29
ENB 6% JN15 -3.0 -2.5 -1.0 -1.3 -1.9 -3.0 −4.4 −4.4 JN29
TYH 9% JN21 1.2 -0.9 2.1 -3.6 −6.2 −4.4 −4.4%
TYP 6% JN23 -5.2 -0.2 −8.7 −8.7 JL16
SPY 0.0 0.5 1.9 1.3 1.2 -0.2
me 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.6 -0.3 -0.5
(Average gain) +1.6%

IAU: Sold the third quarter on Monday, which turned out to be near the top.  The price of gold typically falls in July, so maybe I’ll buy it again in August.

DRETF: On track for recovery in another four weeks.  It is now hovering just below its 50-day average.  D.UN is up 1.6% for the week, while Schwab says DRETF is up only 1.1%; this is probably a temporary glitch that will be resolved on Monday.  D.UN shows a bullish meeting lines pattern but DRETF doesn’t, even though they are the same stock.

PALL: There are no puts available for PALL, so I don’t think I’ll buy palladium again on its next upswing.

TLT: Bought a put for it on Monday.  By August 20, I must either have sold for a higher price, or I can exercise the option and accept the 2.0% loss, or “roll out” the option to a later date (which would cost maybe another 2%).  Since I’m hoping for a 5% gain by September, if I can get a better deal in the meantime then I’ll sell early.

FRED: Bought put coverage for ¾ of the shares.  The last quarter is covered by a conditional order to buy a $12.50 put if the price gets down that low.  The first ¼ sale is scheduled for +5% gain, which probably won’t be next week.

CGO: Doing okay.  Hopefully the gain will be positive next Wednesday, when I sell it.

ENB: Doing badly, but hasn’t stopped out yet.  It will take a minor miracle for this thing to be a gainer next Wednesday.

TYH: Bought in honour of the two-week rally.  I gave it a 6% trailing stop, which would have been sufficient for each of the last two rallies.  But the market is in a bad mood now and can’t find its mojo for a rally.

TYP: Bought in disgust after TYH stopped out.  Half of it is protected by a put, the other half by a conditional order to buy a lower put.  Because TYP is 3× leveraged, it is very volatile and so puts are expensive, so I bought a put that expires in only three weeks.  I have a limit order to sell half of it at +13% gain, which probably won't happen next week.  If it falls another 7% or so, maybe I’ll buy more.

Monday, 20 June 2011

Week of 2011 JN 17

My account lost 0.4% for the week, same as SPY.

This week I drove to Buffalo and submitted my application to Schwab for options trading.  Hopefully that will be approved next Monday.  Then I can switch FRED and TLT over from stops to puts.  I might be willing to buy TNA with a protective put; it looks like it *might* bounce 15% over the next two weeks.

Daily % gainStop %Realized
Symb size when Fri Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Beg End
IAU 20% MR24 4.5 3.7 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.5 +2.9 +3.5
DRETF 20% MR30 -4.6 -4.8 -2.1 -2.1 -4.9 -4.3
PALL 7% MA06 8.2 7.0 6.8 5.4 4.2 3.5 +2.7 +2.7
VSR 6% MA23 -0.2 0.1 -1.1 -2.0 -3.0 -2.2 −3.2 −3.2 −3.3%
TLT 11% MA25 1.2 0.7 -0.8 1.0 1.4 1.0 −1.2 −2.8
FRED 6% MA31 -2.5 -2.0 -0.1 -1.4 -0.4 -0.6 −10.9 −10.9
CGO 6% JN15 -0.3 -0.8 -0.2 −4.4 −4.4
ENB 6% JN15 -2.2 -3.4 -3.0 −4.4 −4.4
SPY 0.0 0.1 1.2 -0.5 -0.3 -0.4
me 0.0 -0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.5 -0.4

IAU: Still doing okay.  I sold some on Monday, which turned out to be the low point.  Now some pundits are predicting that it will form a bottom soon and start heading up.  If so, I might buy some more.

DRETF: Still not doing very well.  It seems that DRETF tracks the ups and downs in IYR, the US real estate index, even though it is not American real estate.  One pundit thinks that IYR is going to crash soon, due to the double-dip depression in US real estate.  I’m still hoping that DRETF will bounce in the next two weeks now that the new shares have been issued.

PALL: Dropped a lot!  But my stop is above water so gains are assured.  If it doesn’t stop out soon, maybe I should buy some more.

TLT: The 3% trailing stop is too tight and I have to keep resetting it.  In Buffalo, the Schwab person laughed at me when I told him how tight my stop was.  Hopefully switch to a put-option next week.

‘M’ oscillators:  No hits on the 16-day oscillator.  On Tuesday there were nine hits on the 20-day oscillator, none on other days.  I bought CGO and ENB, but they won’t do well unless the market rallies next week.

Weekly scan:  Buy nothing.  The hits are AGM and BFR.  I just don’t have confidence in this thing anymore.

TNA day trades:  Good thing I didn’t buy this week!  Would have been a 0.5% loser.  Next week: $RUT is up only 0.3%, so don’t buy anything.

Monday, 13 June 2011

Week of 2011 JN 10

My account lost 1.7% for the week, while SPY lost 2.2%.  Half my loss comes from DRETF which went into correction this week and will hopefully come back.  Another ½% comes from BAL which stopped out and will not be coming back.

Trading performance over the last six months has been unacceptable.  I get mostly small losses interspersed with a few large losses and the occasional small gain.  I have been mostly losing ground ever since I started using protective stops, but I am not good enough at stock-picking to do without the stops.  I have called Schwab and asked for access to the options trading market, so I can use “puts” instead of “stops”, but this request will take over a week to be approved.  In the meantime, I don’t feel like buying anything.

Daily % gainStop %Realized
Symb size when Fri Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Beg End
IAU 20% MR24 4.9 5.1 5.0 4.7 5.1 4.5 +2.2 +2.9
DRETF 20% MR30 0.1 -1.5 -1.1 -4.0 -3.6 -4.6
PALL 7% MA06 6.2 6.5 7.9 7.7 8.5 8.2 +1.6 +2.7
VSR 6% MA23 -1.0 -1.4 -1.3 -1.1 0.0 -0.2 −3.6 −3.2
TLT 11% MA25 0.0 -0.8 0.1 0.8 0.4 1.2 −2.7 −1.2
FRED 6% MA31 -1.0 -1.3 0.1 -1.6 -1.9 -2.5 −11.2 −10.9
BAL 6% JN02 -2.6 -8.1 -11.2 -11.3 -9.2 -10.0 −9.3 −10.4 −10.7%
TNA 11% JN06 -4.6 -4.1 -7.4 -5.9 -10.5 −2.2 −1.1 −1.1%
IWM 6% JN09 -0.5 -2.0 −2.2 −1.9 −1.9%
SPY 0.0 -1.1 -1.2 -1.6 -0.8 -2.2
me 0.0 -0.9 -0.7 -1.4 -1.2 -1.7
(Average) −3.7%

IAU: Doing okay, but more and more pundits are predicting that gold has topped.  If all I get out of this is 2.9%, I will be disappointed.

DRETF: Doing very badly.  This is its worst week since the Flash Crash last May.  It took six weeks to get back to its old price after that.  If it drops another 5%, that will put it below the 200-day moving average, which hasn't happened since August '07; price recovery took 3½ years.  I might have to bail.

FRED: Showing relative strength (down less than the market).  I’m worried that the stop might not be deep enough.  This will be a good first candidate for a protective put.

BAL: Stop wasn’t deep enough.

IWM: Stop wasn’t deep enough.

Weekly scan:  Buy nothing.  There are no hits.

16-day oscillator:  Buy nothing.  The only hit this week was WTI on JN08, which I didn’t buy and it’s gone down since then.

TNA day trades:  $RUT was down 3.5% for the week, but I don’t feel like trying again this week.

Sunday, 5 June 2011

Week of 2011 JN 03

My account lost 0.4% for the week, while SPY lost 2.3%.  SPY has lost all its gains of the past four months, while my account has hit a new low.

Last week I predicted that the market would fall on Monday and rise for the rest of this week.  What actually happened was that the market fell for the first hour on Monday, rose for the day, then fell sharply for the rest of the week.  So I was only off by an order of magnitude!  Thursday was especially bad: stocks, bonds, commodities, and real estate all fell simultaneously.  I guess it was some sort of Global Deflation Day.

In the table below, the parenthetical realized gains are for ¼ sales.  Including these makes the column look better because now it has more green than red, but creates problems for the “Average” line.  For now I think I’ll include both the overall gain and the final-quarter gain in those weeks when I close a position in a stock from which quarters had been sold.

Daily % gainStop %Realized
Symb size when Fri Tue Wed Thu Fri Beg End
IAU 19% MR24 4.7 4.6 4.8 4.6 4.9 +0.2 +2.2 (+1.8%)
DRETF 20% MR30 0.1 0.9 0.0 -0.7 0.1
PALL 6% MA06 3.9 5.6 5.5 5.3 6.2 −1.7 +1.6 (+7.5%)
VSR 6% MA23 -0.6 0.4 -0.2 0.0 -1.0 −3.6 −3.6
TLT 11% MA25 0.1 0.4 1.4 -0.6 0.0 −2.7 −2.7
TZA 6% MA31 -1.2 8.2 8.3 13.3 −2.3 +0.7 +0.7%
FRED 6% MA31 2.4 -0.1 -0.2 -1.0 −11.6 −11.2
BRLI 6% MA31 0.4 -2.5 -2.8 -5.9 −3.4 −2.4 −2.4%
SWY 6% JN01 -6.3 -8.2 -9.9 −4.4 −4.4 −4.4%
BAL 6% JN02 -0.6 -2.6 −9.3 −9.3
SPY 0.0 1.0 -1.2 -1.3 -2.3
me 0.0 0.5 -0.1 -0.5 -0.4
(Average) −0.7%

IAU: Sold ¼ on Wednesday.  The parenthetical gain is small because I told Schwab to sell some of the shares I bought last week, not the cheaper shares I had bought in March.  This increases the likelihood that the final ¼ sale will show a gain even if the price falls from here.

DRETF: On Tuesday the price of D.UN was down, but the USD/CAD exchange rate was up, so I gained!  Some say that the loonie has peaked and will fall for the summer, which will be negative for DRETF.  On Thursday, Dundee REIT fell below the strike price for its new shares to be issued JN14; then on Friday it popped back up.  It’ll probably go nowhere next week.

PALL: Sold another ¼ on Tuesday.  Palladium is doing very well and the stop gain is now positive.  Maybe I should buy more at the next dip.

VSR: Looks like the uptrend is over.  I’ve put out another limit sale at $3.43.  Hopefully I can get out of this one with my shirt intact.

TLT: Looked bad on Thursday, but I’d like to keep this for the summer, so I reset the 3% trailing stop.  Then it rose back up a little.

TZA: First try of the new TNA/TZA day-trading system—and it’s a winner!  It was a small gain on a small bet, but at least it’s positive.  This turned out to be a great week for TZA, but I didn’t want to bet on that.

FRED: Popped the day I bought it!  Then fell back down.  I still have hopes for this one.  I am raising the stop by only 5.45¢ per week, following the trendline of the spike-lows.

BRLI: I decided not to buy SDRL (which was down 0.1% for the week) because it doesn’t seem to have any noticable earnings-swings; also the CEO is under investigation for insider oil trading.  So instead I bought BRLI which had a bad week.

SWY: Another 16-day osc pick; another loser.  Fell straight down from the moment I bought it, with no mini-rallies.  Looks like the 16-day osc program needs more work.

BAL: Looks like it’s finished its correction and is headed back up—but of course it fell as soon as I bought it.  Oh well; PALL did the same thing to begin with.

Review of last week:  Of the stocks sold last week, all are worth less now than then, except BPI (which I no longer want to be associated with) and SH.

Weekly scan:  Buy nothing.  There are no hits except AMAG (too volatile) and NAUH (reminds me of BPI).

16-day oscillator:  Buy nothing.  There were no hits this week except SWY.

TNA day trades:  $RUT was down 3.4% for the week, so buy TNA on Monday.  Expected gain is about 2½% for a one-day trade, so this week I will bet 11% of the account on it.

SPY reaction trades: Moby Waller offers an analysis of VIX that looks like the sort of thing I do, so it probably doesn't work.  He says that when VIX jumps by 15% (as it did on Wednesday), then SPY will reliably be higher two weeks later.  On the other paw, Claus Vogt says that SPY is going down and one should buy SH for $40.80 with a stop at $38.80.  They could both be right: if SPY rises the average amount of 3.7% over the next two weeks, then SH will not fall far enough to trigger that stop.  I think I'll watch this one from the sidelines.