Friday, 16 December 2011

Week of 2011 DE 15

SPY fell 3.5% this week, while my account rose 1.8%.

Daily % gain
Max % lossResults
Symbol  since Fri   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri Beg   End
TZA#2a  NO30 -10.7  8 -6.9  8 -1.3  9 +2.8  9 -0.2  9 -2.5  9 −13.6 −11.2 −4.9%
TZA#2b  NO30 -6.0  9 -2.1  9 +3.8  10 +8.1  10 +4.9  10 +2.5  9 −9.2 −6.6 +9.7%
TNA  DE15 -0.8  10 +1.6  10 −15.2 −10.0
IAU  DE16 +0.2  10 −5.7 −5.4
SPY 0.0 -1.5 -2.4 -3.4 -3.1 -3.5
me 0.0 +0.6 +1.5 +2.2 +1.9 +1.8

IAU: Bought because ZeroHedge recommends it.  They say to hold it for about two weeks.  Toby Connor also recommends gold (hold until it goes stratospheric), but he’s been wrong a lot recently, so I’ll stick to my usual 5½% trailing stop.  If I get only a 38% retrace of the recent drop, that would be a 2.5% profit.

Several times now I have missed trades because I have other things to do in life besides check the market every hour on the hour.  If I can manage to make some money next month, perhaps I should look into a way to automate the trades coming from my model, since it seems to be doing a better job than I am!  Unfortunately, Schwab doesn’t seem to support automated trading.  I found a news article suggesting that they sold their automatic-trading system to UBS.  It is difficult for me to leave Schwab because I have an IRA retirement account with them and am no longer a US resident.

MACD-based swing trades

Buy dateBuy priceSell dateSell priceProfit
TZA#2a DE 07 11:00 NO 30 09:30 $28.31 $29.97 DE 16 11:00 DE 16 11:10 $28.39 $28.58 +0.0% ‒4.9%
TNA#0 DE 09 14:00 skipped $45.62   DE 12 12:00 skipped $42.71   ‒6.6% +0.0%
TNA DE 15 14:00 DE 15 16:50 $40.90 $41.00 not yet not yet        

TZA#2a: Bought way too early; sold on time.

TNA#0: Skipped this trade and avoided a significant loss.  Maybe my model should avoid buying TNA when PPO-signal is positive.  That wouldn’t help overall returns much, but it would avoid a bunch of loser trades.  I don’t need any more aggravation!

TNA: Normal swing trade in progress.  Bought in the aftermarket because I was in a business meeting at 2pm, but ended up getting roughly the same price anyway.

Surfing the oscillations

Last week I wrote: “The sell-limit order for a 38% retrace on that second tranche still hasn’t triggered. Now it’s a race to see whether the tranche sells before I get a ‘buy more’ signal from the model or get stopped out.”  Well, the race was won by the sell-limit order!
So I split the tranches of TZA#2 back into separate trades: the purchase of TZA#2a was eventually approved by my MACD model and so I sold it per model, while TZA#2b never did get approval and was sold at a Fibonacci retracement as shown on this chart.

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