Friday, 13 January 2012

Week of 2012 JA 13

SPY rose by 0.9% this week, while my account fell by 0.1%. 

The market tends to make a spike-low every 35 to 40 days.  There have been 33 trading days since the last spike-low on Nov. 25th.

Daily % gain
size
Max % lossResults
Symbol  since Fri   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri Beg   End
 
RWM  JA06 +0.1  6 -0.5  6 -1.3  10 -1.8  10 -2.0  10 -1.5  10 −7.8 −6.9
SPY +1.8 +2.0 +2.9 +2.9 +3.2 +2.7
me +0.0 -0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1

For this year, the SPY and me rows in the table now start at +0.0 on JA 01, rather than restarting at +0.0 each week.

RWM: Gapped down on Tuesday, so I bought more at a lower price (which effectively tightened my stop-loss).  I had a limit-order to buy a third tranche if SPY rose to $130.50 (just below major resistance), but that didn’t happen.
      Next week: consider tightening the stop to 5%.  The 8% stop is for index funds to be held for several months, but I have doubts that I can really bear to hold this thing so long.  If I’m going to sell it at the January spike-low, the correct trailing-stop value is 5%.

MACD-based swing trades

Still no swing trades this week!  Hopefully the Minor [3] wave has just begun today and will trend downward next week.  PPO-signal is now only 0.18 and PPO-histogram is -0.20, so my robot-trader won’t buy anything unless there is a sharp drop of maybe 2% to trigger the delta rule.

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