Friday, 17 February 2012

Week of 2012 FE 17

SPY rose by 1.6% this week, to its highest value since 2007, while my account fell by 1.4% to its lowest value ever.  My loss floor rose by 2.1% because I am now out of the market again.

Euro news: The ECB exchanged its Greek bonds for mostly-identical ones that are now immune to any “Collective Action Clause”.  Then the Parliament of Greece introduced a bill to cram-down the Greek bonds, forcing everyone to accept 50¢ on the €, except for the ECB which is now immune so Greek retirees lose half their money while central bankers lose nothing.

Daily % gain
size
Max % lossResults
Symb  Buy Fri   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri Beg   End
 
TZA  FE07 +4.1  22 -0.1  21 +1.2  21 +3.8  21 -2.2  21 -2.1  21 −11.0 −11.0 −1.8%
SPY +7.1 +7.9 +7.7 +7.2 +8.4 +8.7
me -1.2 -2.2 -1.9 -1.3 -2.6 -2.6
floor -4.7 -4.7 -4.7 -4.7 -2.6 -2.6

MACD-based swing trades

Ticker
Symbol
Buy dateBuy priceSell dateSell priceProfit
ModelActualMAModelActualMAMA
TZA FE 07 15:00 $18.69 $18.67 FE 16 13:00 FE 16 14:00 $18.48 $18.41 −1.6% −1.8%
FE 09 11:00 FE 09 12:17 $18.79 $18.75

Rats!  Another loss!  On Thursday at 1pm, the model (based on stockcharts.com’s graphs) said “sell” but my trading robot (based on real-time quotes from Schwab) said “wait” because the quote it got for IWM at 1pm happened to have fallen by one penny from the quote at 12pm, so I got a reprieve because the model says not to sell when the last hour’s price-change is favourable.  No such luck at 2pm, though.

The trading robot seems to be functioning properly and is ready to make money as soon as market conditions are favourable—which wasn’t this week.  For IWM, the PPO-signal is now +0.54 while the histogram is -0.002, so the robot is primed to buy back TZA if the market drops sharply next week, or to sit calmly idle if it doesn’t drop.

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