SPY fell by 0.5% this week, while my account rose 0.5%. Both of these figures have returned to within 0.1% of their values as of May 11th, eight weeks ago. My loss-floor has risen to -7.7%.
Euro economy: Greece has reported to the Troika that its citizens have stopped paying bills in Euros. The people have lost faith in their currency, so re-drachma-tization *should* occur soon, but it seems the Hellenic Government still isn’t ready to face that music.
US economy: Friday’s Nonfarm Payroll report was bad, so the market fell (and will probably continue falling for Monday and Tuesday). There have been a slew of negative warnings for the Q2 earnings reports.
US markets: Closed on Wednesday for Independence Day. Tuesday was a half-day.
TNA: Max-loss above zero! That hasn’t happened since last November. The stock got sold later that same day, but still — I made it to the “guaranteed” profit level.
The big problem this week was Opera’s NO_MODIFICATION_ALLOWED_ERR, which I got during Tuesday’s stop-adjust (worked correctly on manual retry). Same problem occurred during Friday’s stop-adjust (but the adjustment went through anyway?) Same problem a third time prevented the SRTY purchase from going through (I used a limit order). Clearly, Schwab has screwed around with their order-entry process YET AGAIN. I shall have to look into that this weekend.
Another problem: Schwab failed to reset their ”volume so far today” value to zero for July 4th, so the robot did a spurious stop-update on Wednesday.
|Buy date||Buy price||Sell date||Sell price||Acct Profit|
|TNA||JN 29 11:00||$52.88||$52.86||JL 06 11:00||JL 06 11:19||$55.80||$55.84||+0.8%|
|SRTY||JL 06 13:00||JL 06 15:35||$43.55||(Not yet)|
TNA: Robot failed to detect the “sell” signal at 11am. The 10am IWM quote from Schwab was $80.60 (stockcharts.com said $80.54), then the 11am quote from Schwab was $80.54 (stockcharts said $80.44). So the price of IWM “really” fell 10¢ during that hour but the robot saw a 6¢ drop. My previous change to the TNA/TZA models was supposed to allow a “slop” of 0.1% price rise while still matching the sell-rule ”price must have fallen during last hour” — but I had coded it wrong so it actually required that the price had to drop by at least 0.1% (= 8¢ for IWM). The robot tried to sell at noon, but I had already sold manually. Bug has been fixed, but this reduces 2008..2011 TNA profits by 2.7 %-points (no effect on TZA profits). Just dropping the “price must fall” rule would cost an additional 7.7 %-points, so I guess I’ll keep putting that off.
SRTY: Robot tried to buy at the proper time, but got the dreaded NO_MODIFICATION_ALLOWED_ERR. I successfully used a limit-order to obtain the model’s expected price several hours later.
Refinement: Add a 3% hard stop in addition to the 10% trailing. This reduces 5½ year profit from 15.4% to 15.2%, but reduces the maximum loss from 1.5% to only 0.5%.Here is my revised model:
|Using weekly indicators for IAU.|
|2007 JA 19||2008 MR 20||+6.5%|
|2008 DE 12||2009 MR 03||+1.5%|
|2009 MA 22||2009 JN 15||-0.5%|
|2009 SE 04||2009 DE 17||+1.5%|
|2010 AR 30||2011 AU 25||+6.7%|
|2012 FE 24||2012 FE 25||-0.5%|
On Friday, gold jumped sharply after the NFP report, but then settled back down. Weekly MACD is still rather negative. A “buy” signal for this model does not seem imminent.