SPY fell by 2.7% this week, erasing the last 15 weeks of gains. My account rose 0.4% and has been hovering in the same area for the last 10 weeks. The loss-floor fell to -7.6%.
Summary of action: There were two short-equity trades this week — a gain and a loss that cancelled each other out. Meanwhile, gold’s price rose.
|Buy date||Buy price||Sell date||Sell price||Acct Profit|
|SRTY ¹||NO 05 10:00||$39.93||$39.92||NO 05 11:00||$39.10||-0.3%|
|SRTY ²||NO 07 12:00||$41.10||NO 09 11:00||$42.20||+0.371%||+0.349%|
SRTY ²: Model and actual profits differ by only 0.022%, but this was enough to create a round-off error (model 0.4%, actual 0.3%).
Gold rose this week. Daily MACD finally turned positive, so I scaled in with UGLD, which is a triple-leveraged “side-bet with the banksters” that the price of gold will continue to go up. My account is now 60% long gold, which feels rather overexposed — but gold’s price moves very slowly. Basic plan is to hold UGLD until daily MACD goes negative.
Original plan was to use a 17% trailing stop for UGLD, but I didn’t like how much that cost so I convinced myself that 9% should be enough for a short swing. We shall see. I have no model for this trade, so it feels “naked”.
Seasonal Trading Strategy
I’ve been waiting to try out Sy Harding’s seasonal trading strategy, but I haven’t yet put on a position for the winter and Sy hasn’t either. In this post he is quite clear about what his strategy is: buy an equity index fund when daily MACD(12,26,9) goes positive after October 16th. It seems that Sy buys the Dow Jones Industrials for the winter, but I was thinking of buying small-caps like I always do (perhaps SCHA, which has no trading fees for Schwab customers).
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