Sunday 2 December 2012

Week of 2012 NO 30

SPY rose by 0.7% this week, while my account was unchanged.  The loss-floor rose to -7.5%.

Canadian market news: Mark Carney, head of the Bank of Canada, has announced that he will be moving to the Bank of England, after spending months vigorously asserting that he would never do such a thing.  I always thought he did a great job protecting Canada’s interests.  On the other hand, he is a Goldmanite and perhaps Canada is better off without him.  We shall see.

Friday’s allocations:
Daily % gain
Max loss
Sym  Buy  Fri  Mon  Tue  Wed  Thu  Fri Beg   End
IAU  AU14 +1.1  14  +1.1  14  +1.1  14  +0.9  14  +0.9  14  +0.8  14  +0.1 +0.1
UGLD  NO09 +0.4  15  +0.4  15  +0.2  15  -0.4  14  -0.2  14  -0.5  14  -0.8 -0.8
TNA  NO21 +0.5  15  +0.6  15  +0.4  30  +1.1  31  +2.1  31  +1.9  31  -0.7 -0.7
SRTY  NO28 -0.2  15  -0.2  15  -0.2  15  -0.5 -0.5
SPY +12.6     +12.4     +11.8     +12.7     +13.2     +13.3    
me -3.9 -3.9 -4.3 -4.5 -3.3 -3.9
floor -7.3 -7.1 -8.1 -7.7 -7.6 -7.5

TNA: Doubled my bet, then raised the stop so I ended up with the same max-loss again.

Stock-trading robot

Buy dateBuy priceSell dateSell priceAcct Profit
ModelActualMAModelActual M  A  M  A 
TNA NO 21 13:00 $52.74 (Not yet)
NO 23 11:00 (Skipped) $54.16  
NO 27 11:00 NO 27 14:26 $55.15
SRTY (Do not buy) NO 28 11:00 $40.59 NO 28 12:00 $40.14 +0.0% -0.2%

TNA: Robot once again failed to rebuy, so I used a limit-order.  It looks like all rebuys fail now because Schwab's new interface requires checking a box if you enter a market order while a stop order is outstanding.  Still haven't done the rework to handle holidays properly. Also, it looks like the PPO values for now differ significantly from the robot's.  Something has gotten out of sync.

SRTY: The robot is clearly malfunctioning.  It should not have bought SRTY because price was not below hourly SMA(27).  I think the historical data has gotten screwed up, perhaps because of the many recent manual adjustments due to holidays, etc.  I should “declare an emergency” and fix it up this weekend. (Data seems okay. Price was off by a penny and SMA was very close. No emergency after all.)

Gold trading

Gold’s price hasn't gone anywhere since I raised my bet.  Daily MACD is now zero.  I will allow one day of negative MACD, but if it doesn’t pull up by the second day, the UGLD bet should be closed as a loss.  Meanwhile, IAU is doing reasonably well and should be kept.

Seasonal trading strategy

I wasn’t paying attention last week and didn’t notice that daily MACD went positive on November 21st, so I was supposed to buy SCHA for the winter.  Oh well.  Not sure what to do now; I don’t really have enough money to place another bet, since so much is tied up in gold.  Might have to skip this for 2012 and try again next year.  Or, if the market falls back to the NO 21 price, perhaps buy with a limit-order.

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