Saturday, 3 May 2014

Week of 2014 MA 02

IWM rose by 0.2% this week, while my account fell by 1.3% to its lowest value of the year so far.  The loss-floor has fallen to -8.6%, also lowest for the year so far.

World news: Ukraine has instituted conscription to protect itself from Russia, in part because the IMF has offered them lots of money if they repel the Russians, none if they don’t.

US news: Friday's nonfarm payroll was quite unexpectedly good.  288,000 new jobs!  Unemployment rate down to 6.3%!  But the main causes of this are that 800,000 people gave up looking for work and thus are no longer “unemployed” (so what are they?), plus the “seasonal adjustment” caused a loss of 73,000 jobs in the raw data to be reported as a gain of 288,000 in the official data.  Only 63% of Americans have jobs, which could reasonably be described as a 37% unemployment rate, not 6.3%.  But that wouldn't look very nice!

End of week allocations:

105% equities, 55% cash
% gain
size
Max loss
Sym  Buy  Fri  Mon  Tue  Wed  Thu  Fri Beg   End
 
URTY ¹ AL16 -0.0 14 -0.5 13 -0.5 13 -0.5 13 -0.5 0 -1.1 -1.1
TZA AL25 +0.2 10 +0.4 11 +0.3 11 -0.4 21 -0.3 21 -0.3 21 -0.7 -0.8
URTY ²  MA01 -0.2 14 -0.2 14 -2.1 -2.3
TNA MA01 -0.2 10 -0.2 21 -0.9 -1.3
IWM   -3.1   -3.6   -3.4   -2.8   -2.8   -2.9
me -4.0 -4.3 -4.4 -5.1 -5.3 -5.3
floor -5.9 -5.3 -5.3 -5.8 -8.4 -8.6

Whiplash! Monday was actually the bottom of the mini-correction, but my trading robot didn’t notice until Thursday.  Sold TZA, bought both URTY and TNA an hour later, so a sharp change from 63% bearish positioning to 105% bullish.  Too bad the robot didn’t react faster, but there seems to be nothing I can do about that but hold on and hope the market comes to its senses soon.  The last “healthy correction” was in August 2011, almost three years ago.


Stock-trading robot

In the last six weeks of trading, there have been two gains, each less than +0.1%, and thirteen losses.  This has not been a good spring for me!  I can’t seem to make any money on the downswings because they’re too short-lived.  And soon we will be heading into summer, which in normal years (not last year) is choppy and full of short downswings.

The robot is working properly — all trades are on time — but the model’s timing does not match the market’s timing.

Ticker
Symbol
Buy dateBuy priceSell dateSell priceAcct Profit
ModelActualMAModelActual M  A  M  A 
URTY ¹ AL 16 11:00 $77.99 $78.02 AL 28 15:00 $75.62 $75.52 -0.43% -0.46%
TZA AL 25 10:00 $16.89 $16.99 MA 01 11:00 $17.28 $17.24 -0.18% -0.33%
AL 30 10:00 $17.95 $18.01
AGQ AL 28 (Skipped) $18.94 AL 28 $18.81 -0.19% +0.00%
URTY ² MA 01 12:00 $80.12 $79.84 (Not yet)
TNA MA 01 12:00 $69.61 $69.60 (Not yet)
MA 02 11:00 $69.42 $69.40

URTY: Sold at a loss, bought back at a higher price.  Not the right way!  Yet again, the stop price drops after I buy it.

TZA: As I predicted last week, this trade was a loser.  I should have just skipped it.

AGQ: As I predicted last week, this trade would have been a loser (same-day stop-out).  Good thing I skipped it!

YHOO: Got a “Buy” signal for Thursday, but my limit-price was not reached.  Same thing again for Friday.  Try again next Monday.

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