Saturday 25 June 2011

Week of 2011 JN 24

I lost 0.5% this week, while SPY lost only 0.2%.  About 0.4% of my loss was due to TYH, which on Thursday dropped 4%, triggered my stop, then rose 6% after President Obama announced that he was selling some SPR oil.  I’m sick to death of stops and will be phasing them out of my trading plan.

The “two week rally” fizzled after two days.  This market is too bearish so I’ll be avoiding equitites for awhile.

At least my “average gain” is positive for a change!

Daily % gainStop %Realized
Symb size since Fri Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Beg End
IAU 20% MR24 4.5 4.5 4.7 4.7 4.3 3.9 +3.5 +4.0 +4.0%
DRETF 19% MR30 -4.3 -2.9 -1.8 -1.6 -2.5 -3.2
PALL 6% MA06 3.5 3.5 5.0 4.7 3.6 2.4 +2.7 +2.7 +2.7%
TLT 12% MA25 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.6 −2.8 −2.0 AU20
FRED 7% MA31 -0.6 -0.1 0.8 -1.7 -0.5 -2.1 −10.9 −6.6 AU20
CGO 6% JN15 -0.2 -0.8 -0.3 0.6 -0.1 0.1 −4.4 −4.4 JN29
ENB 6% JN15 -3.0 -2.5 -1.0 -1.3 -1.9 -3.0 −4.4 −4.4 JN29
TYH 9% JN21 1.2 -0.9 2.1 -3.6 −6.2 −4.4 −4.4%
TYP 6% JN23 -5.2 -0.2 −8.7 −8.7 JL16
SPY 0.0 0.5 1.9 1.3 1.2 -0.2
me 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.6 -0.3 -0.5
(Average gain) +1.6%

IAU: Sold the third quarter on Monday, which turned out to be near the top.  The price of gold typically falls in July, so maybe I’ll buy it again in August.

DRETF: On track for recovery in another four weeks.  It is now hovering just below its 50-day average.  D.UN is up 1.6% for the week, while Schwab says DRETF is up only 1.1%; this is probably a temporary glitch that will be resolved on Monday.  D.UN shows a bullish meeting lines pattern but DRETF doesn’t, even though they are the same stock.

PALL: There are no puts available for PALL, so I don’t think I’ll buy palladium again on its next upswing.

TLT: Bought a put for it on Monday.  By August 20, I must either have sold for a higher price, or I can exercise the option and accept the 2.0% loss, or “roll out” the option to a later date (which would cost maybe another 2%).  Since I’m hoping for a 5% gain by September, if I can get a better deal in the meantime then I’ll sell early.

FRED: Bought put coverage for ¾ of the shares.  The last quarter is covered by a conditional order to buy a $12.50 put if the price gets down that low.  The first ¼ sale is scheduled for +5% gain, which probably won’t be next week.

CGO: Doing okay.  Hopefully the gain will be positive next Wednesday, when I sell it.

ENB: Doing badly, but hasn’t stopped out yet.  It will take a minor miracle for this thing to be a gainer next Wednesday.

TYH: Bought in honour of the two-week rally.  I gave it a 6% trailing stop, which would have been sufficient for each of the last two rallies.  But the market is in a bad mood now and can’t find its mojo for a rally.

TYP: Bought in disgust after TYH stopped out.  Half of it is protected by a put, the other half by a conditional order to buy a lower put.  Because TYP is 3× leveraged, it is very volatile and so puts are expensive, so I bought a put that expires in only three weeks.  I have a limit order to sell half of it at +13% gain, which probably won't happen next week.  If it falls another 7% or so, maybe I’ll buy more.

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