Sunday, 30 October 2011

Week of 2011 OC 21

SPY rose 1.1% this week, while my account fell once again, by 2.0%.  I am back to the account balance from six weeks ago.

The weekly PPO for IWM is now positive, for the first time since February — but not positive enough for a ”buy” signal.  Still, this is awfully bullish for my “market about to crash” thesis.  This week, the Japanese yen reached its highest value since WWII.

Daily % gain
size
owned
Max % lossResults
Symbol  since Fri Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Beg End
 
RWM  JL01 -0.8  
20
50
 
0.7  
20
50
 
-0.7  
20
50
 
0.2  
20
50
 
0.1  
20
50
 
-0.9  
20
50
 
old puts -2.4  
 0
0
 
-2.4  
 0
0
 
-2.4  
 0
0
 
-2.4  
 0
0
 
-2.4  
 0
0
 
-2.4  
 0
0
 
RPRX  JL25 -32.2  
 2
 
-35.6  
 2
 
-34.6  
 2
 
-36.7  
 2
 
-35.9  
 2
 
-35.4  
 2
 
+15.5 +15.5
NOp  JL25 22.3  
1.5
 
24.3  
1.6
 
25.4  
1.6
 
25.8  
1.6
 
25.7  
1.6
 
-25.5  
1.6
 
−23.2 −23.2
TZA#1  OC17 0.3  
10
 
-8.1  
 9
 
-2.3  
 9
 
-5.0  
19
 
-11.2  
18
 
−15.1 −12.1
TZA#2  OC19 2.5  
 5
 
1.8  
 5
 
-4.9  
 5
 
−1.4 −1.4 −1.4%
SPY 0.0 -1.9 0.0 -1.2 -0.7 1.1
me 0.0 -0.6 -0.7 0.4 -0.7 -2.0

TZA: Bought a little early: PPO=-0.75.  Tuesday: got down to -10.0% with my stop at -10.5%!  Wednesday: tried buying more, with a tight stop, but stopped out within minutes, so shown above as #2 separate purchase.  Thursday: PPO finally hit -1.0 with a negative candlestick, so I bought more, just before the death of Ghaddafi was announced!


Pretty charts

Here is a chart.  I don’t know what it means.  The stock prices show a “megaphone” pattern, which some people say is bullish and others say 50/50 can’t tell what it will do next.  The PPO waveform shows a ”descending wedge” pattern, which is probably bullish.  The breakout has already occurred.  How often do false breakouts happen on MACD-type waveforms?  Dunno.


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