Week of 2011 NO 25

SPY fell 4.5% this week, while my account rose 2.2% to its highest value in five weeks.  Conditions look ripe for a major downswing next week, but all my bear-market gains so far are still at risk because the TZA max-loss is not yet positive.

US markets were closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving.  Friday was a half-day.

		│	Daily % gain   size   owned												│	Max % loss		│	Results
Symbol	since	│	Fri		Mon		Tue		Wed		Thu		Fri		│	Beg	End	│
SCHA	OC31	│	-3.7	10	-6.0	10	-6.8	10	-9.6	0					│			│	−3.6%
IAU	NO03	│	-2.3	14 50	-3.5	13 50	-3.0	6 50	-3.1	6 50			-3.5	0 50	│	−3.3	−3.3	│	−3.3%
PPLT	NO14	│	-4.0	6	-6.5	6	-5.2	0							│			│	−3.4%
TZA	NO18	│	-0.2	6	2.3	13	4.9	14	14.7	15			13.9	23	│	−13.1	−3.1	│
SPY		│	0.0		-1.8		-2.2		-4.3				-4.5		│			│
me		│	0.0		0.1		0.4		1.5				2.2		│			│

IAU: On Monday, gold fell more than 5.5% from its recent peak.  This is a fairly reliable sign that gold is not going up any time soon.  The gold bugs are still screaming “BUY GOLD!” but they always say that at the beginning of a decline.  Maybe buy it back after the crash.

MACD-based swing trades

Ticker Symbol		Buy date			Buy price			Sell date			Sell price			Profit
		Model	Actual		M	A		Model	Actual		M	A		M	A
SCHA		OC 31 09:30	OC 31 09:35		$33.54	$33.40		NO 22 10:48	NO 18 11:06		$31.16	$32.18		−7.1%	−3.6%
TZA		NO 17 13:00	NO 18 10:42		$31.56	$31.73		not yet	not yet
		NO 21 11:00	NO 21 11:43		$34.64	$34.71
		not yet	NO 25 11:22			$37.80

SCHA: I was right to sell early.  The weekly-swing model never did give a “sell” signal until the emergency trailing stop kicked in.

TZA: Original tranche bought late.  Second tranche bought roughly on time.  Third tranche bought early for extra profit on Friday.  Still have lots of cash to buy more tranches next week.  The US$ is rising, so cash is an “investment” right now.