Friday, 25 November 2011

Week of 2011 NO 25

SPY fell 4.5% this week, while my account rose 2.2% to its highest value in five weeks.  Conditions look ripe for a major downswing next week, but all my bear-market gains so far are still at risk because the TZA max-loss is not yet positive.

US markets were closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving.  Friday was a half-day.

Daily % gain
  size  
owned
Max % lossResults
Symbol  since Fri Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Beg End
 
SCHA  OC31 -3.7  
10
 
-6.0  
10
 
-6.8  
10
 
-9.6  
 0
 
−3.6%
IAU  NO03 -2.3  
14
50
 
-3.5  
13
50
 
-3.0  
 6
50
 
-3.1  
 6
50
 
-3.5  
 0
50
 
−3.3 −3.3 −3.3%
PPLT  NO14 -4.0  
 6
 
-6.5  
 6
 
-5.2  
 0
 
−3.4%
TZA  NO18 -0.2  
 6
 
2.3  
13
 
4.9  
14
 
14.7  
15
 
13.9  
23
 
−13.1 −3.1
SPY 0.0 -1.8 -2.2 -4.3 -4.5
me 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 2.2

IAU: On Monday, gold fell more than 5.5% from its recent peak.  This is a fairly reliable sign that gold is not going up any time soon.  The gold bugs are still screaming “BUY GOLD!” but they always say that at the beginning of a decline.  Maybe buy it back after the crash.

MACD-based swing trades

Ticker
Symbol
Buy dateBuy priceSell dateSell priceProfit
ModelActualMAModelActualMAMA
SCHA OC 31 09:30 OC 31 09:35 $33.54 $33.40 NO 22 10:48 NO 18 11:06 $31.16 $32.18 −7.1% −3.6%
TZA NO 17 13:00 NO 18 10:42 $31.56 $31.73 not yet not yet        
NO 21 11:00 NO 21 11:43 $34.64 $34.71
not yet NO 25 11:22   $37.80

SCHA: I was right to sell early.  The weekly-swing model never did give a “sell” signal until the emergency trailing stop kicked in.

TZA: Original tranche bought late.  Second tranche bought roughly on time.  Third tranche bought early for extra profit on Friday.  Still have lots of cash to buy more tranches next week.  The US$ is rising, so cash is an “investment” right now.

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