Monday, 17 February 2014

Week of 2014 FE 14

IWM rose by 2.9% this week, while my account rose 3.3%.  The loss-floor has risen sharply to -5.3%.  Seven weeks into the year, I have made back recent losses and my returns once again lag the broad market’s by only 1%.  The recent correction was not deep enough for my trading system to be much better than just staying fully invested all the time.

Equities and precious metals are both rising, while the dollar is falling.  Can you say “inflation”, boys and girls?

End of week allocations:

99% equities, 22% silver, 45% cash
% gain
Max loss
Sym  Buy  Fri  Mon  Tue  Wed  Thu  Fri Beg   End
SCHH JA31 +0.1 11 +0.1 11 +0.1 0
SRTY FE05 -0.3 10 -0.3 10 -0.3 0
ATML FE06 -0.1 10 -0.1 10 -0.1 0
URTY FE06 +0.3 11 +0.4 11 +0.6 11 +0.8 11 +1.2 12 +1.2 12 -1.5 +0.5
AGQ FE07 +0.1 11 +0.2 11 +0.3 11 +0.3 11 +0.7 11 +1.7 12 -0.2 +0.7
TNA FE11 -0.0 11 +0.1 11 +0.7 21 +0.8 21 -0.9 -0.9
IWM   -3.8   -3.6   -2.7   -2.3   -1.1   -0.9
me -5.2 -5.1 -4.7 -4.4 -3.1 -1.9
floor -7.3 -7.0 -7.5 -7.0 -6.7 -5.3

URTY: On Thursday, price rose above hourly SMA(180), causing a sudden jump in my stop-price.  This is the opposite of the sudden drops seen in the previous two weeks.  It might be better if I had four stop-price régimes instead of two, as currently the two régimes give sharply-different prices.

AGQ: Sudden jump on Friday!

TNA: Max-loss is back to unchanged, even though I doubled my position.

cash: My spreadsheet’s numbers now match Schwab’s; apparently there was something wrong with one of the recently-sold positions that settled on Tuesday.

me: My spreadsheet’s numbers now match Schwab’s, but didn’t earlier in the week.  I suspect that something is still wrong.

Stock-trading robot

Buy dateBuy priceSell dateSell priceAcct Profit
ModelActualMAModelActual M  A  M  A 
URTY FE 06 11:00 FE 06 12:34 $75.45 $75.05 (Not yet)
AGQ FE 11 FE 07 09:30 $66.11 $65.04 (Not yet)
TNA FE 11 12:00 FE 11 12:28 $69.56 $69.76 (Not yet)
FE 13 12:00 $71.64 $71.59

AGQ: Switched to new model, which had me buy on Tuesday instead of last Friday.  Meanwhile, due to yet another records-adjustment, the official results now say that Tuesday’s low was one penny too high, and stayed above SMA(q) for the rest of the week, so the latest numbers have me missing out on entire run-up in silver.  I noticed this because the robot grabs daily data each day at 4:20pm (and retains these values rather than downloading updates for previous days), while the above table uses a different database with data for the whole week downloaded on Friday ( and Yahoo both agree on the change, so apparently this was an official back-dated adjustment).  I changed the once-per-week data to match my model.  Anyway, it’s really lucky that I bought on Friday using the previous double-TRIX parameters!

TNA: Bought late because Schwab’s price-quoter got hung up and I didn’t notice for half an hour.  Bought the second tranche on time at noon, even though Rogers screwed up and I didn’t get the robot’s email until 5pm.  Good thing I have the robot set to do its own thing and not wait for my manual approval!

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