IWM fell by 1.1% this week, while my account fell 1.2%. The loss-floor has fallen to -7.7%.
Business news: On Tuesday, Turkey hiked their overnight interest rate
from 7¾% to 12½% (the US and Euro rates are approximately 0%). Markets
rallied, but within 12 hours had sunk back to where they were before. This
refusal to rally on inflationary news is a bearish sign for world markets.
On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve announced that they would continue their “taper” and print up only $65 billion to support the ultrarich in February. Markets shrugged it off.
|End of week allocations:
51% equities, 10% real estate, 59% cash
All leftover trades from 2013 have now been sold. My “loss YTD” figure is still 0.11% less than what Schwab claims. Schwab’s notion of cash-on-hand is 0.01% greater than predicted by my records. Still not sure what to do about these.
AGQ: Due to last week’s 1:4 stock split, I ended up with some fractional shares. After Monday’s sale, the fractional shares were credited as immediate ”cash in lieu”, while the rest of the shares were credited to cash on Thursday as usual.
FRED: My first dividend since 2011! FRED declared its dividend on NO 27, paid DE 16, but I didn’t notice until this week. The dividend adds 0.04% to my effective account-profit from this trade, so it’s small enough to get lost in the round-off error.
URTY²: The sharp drop in the max-loss value is due to an artifact of the “chandelier exit” system: we use the last 32 hours of price-data to compute the peak and true-range, so during Wednesday the higher prices from last week dropped out of the calculations. The new lower stop went into effect after Thursday’s close — just *after* I bought! Maybe there is an extra day’s delay here that could be removed.
|Buy date||Buy price||Sell date||Sell price||Acct Profit|
|FRED||OC 18||OC 24 09:30||$16.11||$16.59||JA 31||JA 31 09:30||$17.38||$17.09||+0.75%||+0.30%|
|ATML¹||DE 18||DE 18 09:30||$7.32||JA 28 09:30||$8.18||+1.19%||+1.18%|
|AGQ||JA 13||JA 13 09:30||$66.68||JA 27||JA 27 14:59||$63.67||$63.58||-0.46%||-0.49%|
|UWM||JA 21||JA 21 11:09||$86.22||JA 27 09:30||JA 27 10:18||$82.68||$81.44||-0.45%||-0.69%|
|SRTY||JA 24 13:00||$44.47||$44.50||JA 27 15:00||$45.29||$45.33||+0.16%||+0.15%|
|URTY¹||JA 28 15:00||$82.30||$82.39||JA 29 15:00||JA 29 14:09||$79.18||$79.01||-0.40%||-0.45%|
|ATML²||JA 29||JA 29 09:30||$8.34||$8.31||(Not yet)|
|FNSR||JA 30||JA 30 10:00||$23.22||(Not yet)|
|URTY²||JA 30 11:00||$82.20||$81.96||(Not yet)|
|SCHH||JA 31||JA 31 09:30||$31.06||(Not yet)|
FRED: An okay trade. Bought several days late (this was the
first trade using a new model), which lost me 0.30% of account-profit.
Stopped out during a panic-open, so I got the lowest price of the day
(opened at $17.38, dropped to $17.09 within the first minute, then recovered
and stayed above opening price for rest of day). Got an extra 0.04% of
account-profit from the dividend.
On JA 24, FRED’s price was up 14% after three months, but over the next ten days it dropped to only 5% up. Quite a fall! My model parameters for FRED are on the large side, causing long slow trades; the downside is that I will stay too long after the stock goes sour.
ATML¹: Great trade!
AGQ: Stopped out in the middle of the day, so I’m not sure why there was stop-slippage. Anyway, it’s close enough — and silver’s price has dropped another 2% since, so I’m glad that I’m out of it.
UWM: Something went wrong with this trade. The model now says that UWM should have been sold at the open via the “retest” rule (failure to be above purchase price after three days). What actually happened is that it stopped out — and with slippage: the stop price was supposed to be $81.51.
SRTY: End-of-week price is roughly the same as where I sold it, although a price of $47.00 was available several times during the week.
URTY¹: Yet more stop-slippage. What was up with the market-makers this week?
ATML²: Opened below my limit price. For some reason I got a slightly-better deal than the open. Still, bought it back for more than I had sold it for. Hasn’t gone anywhere since. Could still end up being a good trade.
FNSR: Had sold JA 22 for $23.75, bought back JA 30 for $23.22. And now its price is up to $23.72! So basically I gained 0.2% account-profit simply from *not* holding this ticker during a particular week.
SCHH: First-ever trade of a real-estate ETF! This was one of the original tickers included within the new system installed last July. Every night for six months the robot looked at the market and said “no” to buying this stock the next day, until JA 30 when it finally said “yes”. The ticker opened JA 31 at $31.08 and dropped to my limit-price within the first minute. It then spiked down to $30.91 at 09:32, then ramped up to $31.40 by 10:12 and stayed there for the rest of the day. Looking good so far!
Trading model review
Now that the FRED trade has closed, let’s review results for the trading models over the last 3½ months.
REGULAR DAILY TRADES
LEVERAGED DAILY TRADES
LEVERAGED HOURLY TRADES (Russell 2000 derivatives)