Week of 2014 NO 28

IWM rose by 0.1% this week, while my account rose 0.6% — I beat the market for a change!  The loss-floor has fallen to -10.1%.

World news: OPEC met on Thursday.  The Saudis refused to listen to reason from the other ministers and insisted that they would continue to flood the world’s markets with their petroleum.  The spot price of oil dropped sharply after the announcement and has been falling ever since, down 13% in two days.  Copper, silver, and gold prices are also down — this is “deflation” because a dollar will now buy more of these commodities than it used to.

Holidays: US markets were closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving.  Friday was a half-day.

Seasonality: The week after Thanksgiving tends to be bearish, and we’ve now had four weeks of no-change which also suggest a reversal and a “down” market next week.  But who knows?  The central banksters might decide to run their printing presses overtime to counteract the deflationary impact of the Saudi oil glut.

End of week allocations: 99% equities, 34% cash USD

% gain size │ Max loss Sym Buy │ Fri Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri │ Beg End URTY OC28 │ +1.3 15 +1.8 16 +1.8 16 +1.9 16 +1.3 15 │ -0.7 -0.5 ATML NO24 │ +0.2 13 +0.2 13 +0.5 13 +0.5 13 │ -1.4 -1.1 YHOO NO26 │ +0.1 13 +0.0 13 │ -1.2 -1.1 UWM NO28 │ -0.0 14 │ -0.9 -0.8 IWM │   +1.2   +2.4   +2.6   +2.9      +1.3 │ me │ -5.4 -4.7 -4.7 -4.1 -4.8 │ floor │ -7.3 -8.6 -8.4 -9.4 -10.1 │

Stock-trading robot

Ticker Symbol		Buy date			Buy price			Sell date			Sell price			Acct Profit
		Model	Actual		M	A		Model	Actual		M	A		M	A
FRED		OC 20	(Skipped)		$14.31			(Not yet)
URTY		OC 28 13:00	12:00		$79.36	$79.03		(Not yet)
UWM		NO 21	NO 28 12:58		$85.85	$85.72		(Not yet)
ATML		NO 24 09:30	NO 24 11:31		$7.41	$7.58		(Not yet)
YHOO		(Do not buy)	NO 26 09:30			$51.56			(Not yet)

URTY: TRIX(q) was rising until Friday’s shitstorm.  Now it looks once again like this might sell next week.

UWM: Decided to buy this after all, so I put in a limit-order on Monday, which wasn’t filled until the second-to-last minute on Friday!  Not sure why I set a price of $85.72 instead of $85.85; possibly I was looking at stockcharts.com instead of my own records.  Due to the Saudi oil glut, the profit potential for this trade now looks quite poor unless the banksters start up their printing presses.

ATML: Opened Monday morning at $7.41, but very few shares traded at that price and jumped up to $7.80 within the first minute of the day.  Hours later the price came back down to my limit of $7.58, then it shot back up again over the following minutes.
      My model assumes that I will always get the opening price if it is below the limit-price, but I am a lowly retail customer and I can’t expect to get best execution under adverse market conditions where there are not enough shares to go around.

YHOO: Multiple “Buy” signals this week, but the model’s limit prices were not reached and there is no signal for next Monday.  Meanwhile, the order I put in Tuesday night specified a limit of $53.00 instead of the correct $51.34, so my order went through at Wednesday’s opening price.

Week of 2014 NO 21

IWM fell by 0.2% this week, while my account fell 0.5%.  The loss-floor has risen to -7.3%.

Seasonality: Next week is US Thanksgiving, which tends to be bullish.  But the last three weeks of no-change suggest a reversal and a “down” market next week.  But who knows?  The central banksters might decide to run their printing presses overtime.

End of week allocations: 45% equities, 74% cash USD

% gain size │ Max loss Sym Buy │ Fri Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri │ Beg End URTY OC28 │ +1.3 15 +0.9 15 +1.2 15 +0.7 16 +1.2 15 +1.3 15 │ -0.6 -0.7 UWM ¹ NO14 │ -0.1 14 -0.3 14 -0.1 14 -0.4 13 -0.5 13 -0.5 13 │ -1.0 -1.0 IWM │   +1.4   +0.7   +1.1   +1.0   +0.0   +1.1 │ me │ -4.9 -5.5 -5.1 -5.8 -5.5 -5.4 │ floor │ -7.8 -7.7 -7.7 -7.7 -7.3 -7.3 │

Stock-trading robot

Ticker Symbol		Buy date			Buy price			Sell date			Sell price			Acct Profit
		Model	Actual		M	A		Model	Actual		M	A		M	A
FRED		OC 20	(Skipped)		$14.31			(Not yet)
URTY		OC 28 13:00	12:00		$79.36	$79.03		(Not yet)
UWM ¹		NO 14	09:38		$86.01			NO 20 09:30			$82.97	$82.87		-0.51%
UWM ²		NO 21	(Skipped)		$85.85			(Not yet)

FRED: Would be +0.5 by now if I had bought it.

URTY: TRIX(s) went negative on Thursday at 3pm, but then TRIX(q) went positive on Friday at 10am, so no sale.  This trade is now a short-term hold until TRIX(q) goes negative again, which could happen on Monday.  Conditions still look favorable for getting out of this with a small profit.

UWM ¹: Did not go up after four days, so I got a “Sell” signal Wednesday night and sold at Thursday’s open — near the low of the week!

UWM ²: Indicators were still on a “Buy” signal Thursday night but I decided not to put in the order — which would have been filled Friday afternoon.  I suppose I could buy it next week, but the market looks very toppy so I don’t feel like it.

YHOO: “Buy” signals for Monday and Tuesday, but limit prices not reached.

ATML: “Buy” signal for Friday, but I didn’t put in the order and it wouldn’t have filled.  Another “buy” signal for next Monday.  I guess I’ll try for that one.

Week of 2014 NO 14

IWM rose by 0.1% again this week, while my account was unchanged.  The loss-floor has fallen to -7.8%.

Holiday: Tuesday was Remembrance Day (= “Veterans Day” in the US).  Markets were open, but trades did not settle.

End of week allocations: 87% equities, 60% cash USD

% gain size │ Max loss Sym Buy │ Fri Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri │ Beg End URTY OC28 │ +1.3 15 +1.5 15 +1.6 15 +1.8 16 +1.4 15 +1.3 15 │ -1.1 -0.6 UWM NO14 │ -0.1 14 │ -1.0 -1.0 IWM │   +1.3   +1.9   +1.9   +2.4   +1.4   +1.4 │ me │ -4.9 -4.7 -4.6 -4.4 -4.8 -4.9 │ floor │ -7.2 -7.3 -7.2 -7.0 -6.8 -7.8 │

Stock-trading robot

Ticker Symbol		Buy date			Buy price			Sell date			Sell price			Acct Profit
		Model	Actual		M	A		Model	Actual		M	A		M	A
FRED		OC 20	(Skipped)		$14.31			(Not yet)
URTY		OC 28 13:00	12:00		$79.36	$79.03		(Not yet)
UWM		NO 14	09:38		$86.01			(Not yet)

URTY: The TRIX(s) indicator is flattening out.  This might sell soon.

UWM: Doesn’t look very hopeful, unless the market jumps next week.

YHOO: “Buy” signal for Monday.  Seems quite unlikely that the limit-price will be reached.

Week of 2014 NO 07

IWM rose by 0.1% this week, while my account fell 0.7%.  The loss-floor has risen to -7.2%.

End of week allocations: 45% equities, 74% cash USD

% gain size │ Max loss Sym Buy │ Fri Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri │ Beg End TNA OC16 │ +5.1 26 +5.0 26 +4.4 26 +4.4 26 +4.4 26 +4.4 0 │ +1.76 +2.9 URTY OC28 │ +1.3 15 +1.2 15 +1.0 15 +1.1 15 +1.3 15 +1.3 15 │ -1.1 -1.1 IWM │   +1.2   +1.1   +0.6   +0.8   +1.2   +1.3 │ me │ -4.2 -4.3 -5.2 -5.1 -4.9 -4.9 │ floor │ -9.9 -8.8 -7.2 -7.2 -7.3 -7.2 │

Stock-trading robot

Ticker Symbol		Buy date			Buy price			Sell date			Sell price			Acct Profit
		Model	Actual		M	A		Model	Actual		M	A		M	A
FRED		OC 20	(Skipped)		$14.31			(Not yet)
TNA		OC 16 11:00			$59.41	$59.21		NO 04 11:00			$73.46	$73.42		+4.20%	4.17%
		OC 20 11:00			$61.09	$61.15
URTY		OC 28 13:00	12:00		$79.36	$79.03		(Not yet)

TNA: Excellent!  Bought near the bottom of the roller-coaster and sold near the top.

UWM, YHOO, ATML: “Buy” signals off and on all week, but limit-prices never reached.  All three of these have “buy” signals for Monday.

Week of 2014 OC 31

IWM rose by 4.7% this week, while my account rose 3.8%.  The loss-floor has risen to -9.9%.

Over the last nine weeks, my account has risen 2% while IWM is unchanged.  Progress!  But, over the 27 weeks, my account is roughly unchanged while IWM is about 4% higher.  Going nowhere!

Financial news: On Wednesday, the US Fed confirmed that they will stop their $500 billion/year money-printing program to prop up the US stock market.  Then, the Bank of Japan announced a $700 billion/program money-printing program to prop up, among other things, the US stock market!  So it looks like the market has nowhere to go but up because one central bank or another will constantly print money as needed.

End of week allocations: 123% equities, 48% cash USD

% gain size │ Max loss Sym Buy │ Fri Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri │ Beg End TNA OC16 │ +1.8 24 +1.7 24 +3.6 25 +3.5 25 +4.1 26 +5.1 26 │ -0.6 +1.7 URTY ¹  OC23 │ +0.0 43 -0.8 41 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 0 │ -0.8 -0.8 URTY ² OC28 │ +0.4 15 +0.3 14 +0.7 15 +1.3 15 │ -0.9 -1.1 IWM │   -3.5   -3.6   -0.9   -1.1   -0.2   +1.2 │ me │ -8.0 -8.9 -6.5 -6.8 -5.8 -4.2 │ floor │ -11.1 -10.1 -10.7 -10.8 -9.9 -8.0 │

TNA: Doing great!  Max-loss will be going to +2.8 on Monday morning.

URTY ¹: Naturally, the market drops just far enough to hit my stop, then zooms higher.

Stock-trading robot

Ticker Symbol		Buy date			Buy price			Sell date			Sell price			Acct Profit
		Model	Actual		M	A		Model	Actual		M	A		M	A
FRED		OC 20	(Skipped)		$14.31			(Not yet)
TNA		OC 16 11:00			$59.41	$59.21		(Not yet)
		OC 20 11:00			$61.09	$61.15
URTY ¹		OC 23 11:00			$75.61	$75.73		OC 27 10:00	9:31		$73.96	$73.94		-0.33%	-0.77%
		(Nope)	OC 24 12:00			$74.89
		(Nope)	OC 24 14:00			$75.21
URTY ²		OC 28 13:00	12:00		$79.36	$79.03		(Not yet)

FRED: Skipped this buy because I thought the market would go down.  But it didn’t.  Would be up +1.2 by now if I had bought it!

UWM: “Buy” signals all week, but I didn’t put in the purchase orders and they wouldn’t have triggered anyway.  Another “buy” signal for Monday, but there’s no way it will trigger so I won’t bother.

ATML: “Buy” signal for Monday.  I think I’ll put in the order for this one.