Week of 2011 MA 27

My account lost 0.3% for the week, while SPY lost 0.1%.  This is three weeks in a row of small losses for SPY.  I think this is yet another “failed bear” and the stock market will go up next week.  It might be relevant that $USD fell through the bottom of its price channel on Friday.

			│	Daily % gain						│	Stop %		│	Realized Gain
Symb	size	when	│	Fri	Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri	│	Beg	End	│
IAU	19%	MR24	│	4.9	3.4	3.9	3.9	3.7	4.7	│	+2.0	+0.2	│
DRETF	20%	MR30	│	0.9	0.8	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.1	│			│
REX	6%	AL04	│	3.1	1.1	0.6	1.3	1.9	1.9	│	+1.3	+1.3	│	+1.3%
PVH	6%	AL04	│	-1.3	-2.4	-2.5	-5.0	-0.6	-0.1	│	−2.1	−2.1	│	−3.5%
SPY	6%	MA02	│	-2.9	-4.0	-4.1	-3.9	-3.3	-3.0	│	−4.0	−4.0	│	−4.1%
PALL	6%	MA06	│	1.2	0.4	1.6	3.0	3.6	3.9	│	−3.5	−1.7	│
BPI	6%	MA09	│	5.8	5.5	6.6	11.4	9.7	10.5	│	+1.3	quit	│	+5.3%
SBNY	6%	MA11	│	-1.7	-2.0	-1.9	-1.5	-0.4	-0.2	│	−4.4	done	│	−3.0%
VSR	6%	MA23	│		-2.1	-2.1	-2.4	-0.2	-0.6	│	−8.3	−3.4	│
TNA	6%	MA24	│			-2.9	0.8	4.8	6.8	│	−2.4	−1.5	│	−1.5%
SH	5%	MA24	│			0.0	-0.4	-0.8	-1.2	│	−2.3	quit	│	−1.5%
TLT	11%	MA25	│				-0.7	0.2	0.1	│	−3.2	−2.7	│
me			│	0.0	-0.6	-0.6	-0.6	-0.4	-0.3	│			│
(Average)			│							│			│	−1.0%

IAU: Bought more on Monday, which pushed my stop depth down to 0%.  Some pundits think gold might top out at $1600/oz, so I raised my ¼ limit-sale price to $15.40, corresponding to $1582/oz.

DRETF: Bought more on Thursday, for slightly less than in March so it didn’t affect the stop depth.  The buy was easy this time: the online purchase worked so I didn’t have to call Schwab.  But why no buy-ban while waiting for the new shares to issue on JN14?  Anyway, Friday was the ex-dividend day so I “bought the dividend”.  I haven’t decided whether to sell these new shares after the swing in late June.  If so I’ll split the purchase into DRETF¹ and DRETF² with separate gains.

REX and PVH: End of the first set of weekly-scan purchases.  Not impressive.  The weekly-scan needs retuning.

PALL: Sold ¼ on Thursday, so hopefully my wait for an above-water stop is now down to only another week or two.

BPI: Sold on bad news: the State of New York has begun investigating BPI for fraud, which is exactly what I was afraid of when I bought it.  Meanwhile, less-fussy traders have bid the price back up.

SBNY: End of the first set of 16-day oscillator picks.  Not impressive.

VSR: A weekly-scan pick bought as an earnings-swing trade.  But the earnings swing didn’t really happen because trading volume dropped off to almost nothing — six trades per day!  I would prefer to see at least a dozen so price discovery will actually work.  The order book for VSR usually shows multiple bids but no asks; no one is willing to sell this stock.  On Thursday I put out a limit order to sell ½ at $3.43.  A few hours later someone bought it, so I personally pushed up the price of this stock by 2%!  But five minutes later some joker sold at $3.37 and wiped out my effect.  I have an order to sell the other ½ at $3.50 but no takers yet.  Meanwhile, this standing limit order blocks my standing stop order, so I have to watch this stock and manually decide when to bail.
    New rule: require a minimum volume of 20,000 shares per day.  18,000 is not enough!

SPY, TNA, and SH: The market seemed oversold on Monday, so I thought it would probably bounce back on Tuesday or maybe continue downward into the bear market.  So I put in orders to buy TNA if it rose 1% and SH if it rose ⅓%.  They both triggered!  TNA went up only 2% before falling back down, so I lost 1.5% with trading costs; SH rose just enough to cover my costs.  Then SPY rose for the rest of the week, so SH (which is its inverse) fell.  I got rid of SH on Friday as part of my new thesis that the market will rise next week.  From its low MA20 to its high MA23 to its low MA24 was a textbook 62% Fibonacci retracement, but then the expected upswing didn’t happen.

TLT: It’s unclear which will pop first: the gold bubble or the bond bubble.  So I bought some bonds in case gold pops first and all the scaredy-cat money runs over to bonds.  My account is now 20% gold, 20% Canadian real estate, and 10% US govt bonds.  I’m loaded for bear!  For now I have TLT on a 3% trailing stop.  If I still own it in mid-June, could lower stop to weekly pSAR(0.10) — because 0.16 is too high — and keep until Labour Day for an expected gain of about 5%, based on how the last few years have gone.

Weekly scan:  Buy nothing on Tuesday.  None of the picks are appealing.  Mostly they are companies that just released good earnings and have already jumped.

16-day oscillator:  Buy nothing on Tuesday.  There were no hits this week.

TNA day trades

I might have something!  It’s based on the rather-obvious idea that a good week is often followed by a bad Monday and vice versa, and also on $RUT: the Russell 2000 small-cap index.  If $RUT falls by at least 1% from last Friday to this Friday, then buy TNA next Monday, with 2% trailing stop, and sell at 3:30PM if not stopped out.  If $RUT rises by at least ⅓% then buy TZA instead.  Otherwise, buy nothing.  Results so far this year, assuming for costs that the trade size is 6% of account:

Week	$RUT	Buy	Gain		Week	$RUT	Buy	Gain		Week	$RUT	Buy	Gain
JA03	−0.7%	TNA	+1.3%		FE22	+1.5%	TZA	−0.2%		AL11	−0.7%	TNA	−1.6%
JA10	+0.5%	TZA	+0.1%		FE28	−1.5%	TNA	−1.7%		AL18	−0.7%	TNA	−2.4%
JA18	+2.5%	TZA	−0.8%		MR07	+0.4%	TZA	+6.0%		AL25	+1.3%	TZA	+0.4%
JA24	−4.3%	TNA	+2.2%		MR14	−2.7%	TNA	+1.3%		MA02	−3.7%	TNA	+4.1%
JA31	+0.3%	TZA	−0.1%		MR21	−2.1%	TNA	+1.4%		MA09	−3.7%	TNA	+2.8%
FE07	+3.2%	TZA	−2.1%		MR28	+3.7%	TZA	+0.5%		MA16	+0.3%	TZA	−1.9%
FE14	+2.7%	TZA	+0.4%		AL04	+1.4%	TZA	−0.4%		MA23	−0.8%	TNA	−0.4%

This yields an average gain of +0.9%, with 2:1 odds that a purchase will be a gainer.  Maybe 70% of weeks are suitable, so I can do this about 36 times a year which would yield a 30% gain!  Of course, something will go wrong.  It always does.

For Tuesday: $RUT rose by 0.9%, so buy TZA.  The 3:30PM sale will be my first use of a “conditional” order that’s based on time rather than price.

Earnings swing trades

So I think the market will fall on Monday but rise overall for next week.  This suggests that I should buy some stock, but my usual stock-picking methods are coming up dry.  I looked at the earnings calendar to find companies that have just released good earnings but hadn’t jumped already.  The most appealing candidates are SDRL and FRED.

Fred’s is a general store/pharmacy chain in the southeastern US.  Take a gander at this stock chart, which shows the last four years for FRED.  It’s a giant triangle!  And it looks like it’s about to pop.  If I can buy it at $14.16 with an 8% stop, that would be a stop price of $13.03 which was its low for last month.  Based on this chart, I think I’ll give it a 9% stop which will give it room to bounce off the green slanted line one more time.

Seadrill is a Norwegian deepsea oil-drilling company.  It just bounced off its 200-day moving average, so the outlook is positive.  Weekly pSAR calls for 11% stop depth, which is right at the 200-day average.

For Tuesday: buy FRED, limit $14.16 stop $12.89, and SDRL, limit $35.58 stop $32.12.

Week of 2011 MA 20

My account lost 0.5% for the week, while SPY lost 0.3%.

IAU: Doing well.  Just bounced off its 50-day average and will probably go higher.  For Monday: buy some more.  I can increase size to 18% of account without pushing my stop below water.

DRETF: Here we go again!  They are issuing yet more new shares on JN14 at last Friday’s price.  I expect that my gain will be stuck near 1% until then.  They had just released Q1 earnings, which were excellent yet again, so the stock should “pop” soon after June 14th.  For Monday: call Schwab to ask how long the trading ban will be; buy some more after that.

			│	Daily % gain						│	Stop %		│	Realized Gain
Symb	size	when	│	Fri	Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri	│	Beg	End	│
IAU	12%	MR24	│	3.5	4.4	2.9	3.5	3.6	4.9	│	+1.3	+2.0	│
DRETF	16%	MR30	│	0.4	1.5	1.3	2.1	1.5	0.9	│			│
REX	6%	AL04	│	4.6	1.6	0.9	2.4	3.8	3.1	│	−2.1	+1.3	│
PVH	6%	AL04	│	4.8	2.3	1.0	2.1	3.7	-1.3	│	−2.4	−2.1	│
SPY	6%	MA02	│	-2.6	-3.2	-3.2	-2.3	-2.1	-2.9	│	−4.2	−4.0	│
PALL	6%	MA06	│	-2.5	-2.0	-0.9	0.9	0.1	1.2	│	−4.2	−3.5	│
BPI	6%	MA09	│	9.2	6.7	5.1	8.6	9.6	5.8	│	−4.5	+1.3	│
ASG	6%	MA09	│	-0.4	-1.1	-2.2	-1.3	-1.3	-0.8	│	−4.4	−4.4	│	−0.8%
HZO	6%	MA09	│	0.8	-0.6	-7.2	-7.1	-6.5	-9.1	│	−4.4	−4.4	│	−4.7%
FDM	6%	MA10	│	-1.3	-3.1	-3.4	-2.0	-2.1	-3.0	│	−4.4	−4.4	│	−2.3%
SBNY	6%	MA11	│	-2.3	-2.1	-1.0	-0.3	-0.5	-1.7	│	−4.4	−4.4	│	(MA23)
TNA¹	6%	MA16	│		-2.7	-3.6	0.7	1.4	-0.8	│	−3.4	−3.4	│	−5.1%
TNA²	6%	MA17	│			-0.5	3.9	4.6	2.4	│	−2.4	+2.0	│	+4.3%
TNA³	6%	MA19	│					-0.3	-2.4	│	−2.4	−1.5	│	−1.4%
me			│	0.0	-0.4	-1.0	0.1	0.2	-0.5	│			│
(Average)			│							│			│	−1.6%

REX: Had to sell half of it to get the stop above water.

BPI: Had to sell half of what was left to get the stop above water.

PVH: Never got high enough to justify selling some.  Plummeted on Friday for no apparent reason.

SPY: Never got high enough to sell it.  I guess I’ll keep it for another two weeks or so, in case there is another rally.

PALL: Doing well, but it will be another month or so until the stop gain is positive.

ASG, HZO, FDM, and SBNY: All four initial tries of the 16-day oscillator are losers!  I think this was caused by last week’s rally in the US dollar.  The pundits warned me that the rally was coming, but I didn’t understand how significant it would be.

TNA¹: This initial try of the TNA predictor was a loser.

TNA²: I tried a day-trade, with trailing 2% stop.  Winner!

TNA³: Another day-trade.  Loser!

Weekly scan:  For the five original picks from AL04, the average gain is now -2.5%, while SPY has gained +0.4% during those seven weeks.  Not very impressive!  QTM did well and now BPI has an above-water stop.  I think the weekly-scanner needs to be retuned, perhaps next month.  I would like the *median* gain to be positive, so I can reasonably expect a gain from each purchase.  The current tuning is for maximizing the *average* gain, but I’m getting tired of all the losses and anyway the sell-by-quarters system drastically reduces the maximum possible gain.  For Monday: buy VSR.  Maybe sell it on MA27 before its “earnings fever” wears off.

16-day oscillator

Revised criteria, which are now pickier that the stock chart needs to show an 'M' shape and have decent volume:

• SMA(16,close) > today’s high.
• SMA(16,close) < low of 8 days ago.
• SMA(16,close) > high of 16 days ago.
• SMA(16,close) < low of 24 days ago.
• SMA(16,close) > high of 32 days ago.
• Yesteray’s close < close of 5 days ago. (changed)
• Close for 9 days ago > close of 13 days ago. (changed)
• Close for 21 days ago < close of 25 days ago. (changed)
• Close for 29 days ago > close of 33 days ago. (new)
• Close for 8 days ago > close of 24 days ago × 0.99 (new)
• Today’s close > yesterday’s close.
• SMA(200,close) < today’s low.
• SMA(60,close) > $2.00.
• Today’s volume > 20,000 shares.
• SMA(60,volume) > 20,000 shares. (new)
• Exchange = NYSE, AMEX, or NASDAQ.

Using these criteria, SBNY would not have been selected on MA10.

New rule: If $USD closes above its six-day price channel, don’t buy anything the next day and sell any 16-day osc picks currently owned.  During the last four months, $USD closed above its price channel on FE11, MR10, MA05, MA06, MA11, and MA13.

Effects of new rule: For JA31, BOFI would have been sold for +0.2% gain on FE11 instead of -0.8% gain on FE14.  For FE25, GWW would have been sold for +1.1% instead of +2.1% (oh well) but SNV would have been -4.4% in either case.  The main effect is on MA05 and MA06 which had ten picks, mostly losers, whose purchase would have been blocked by this rule — including ASG.  For MA09 this rule would have forced sale on MA11, reducing the loss for HZO to only -2.0%.

This rule raises average gain from -0.3% to +0.8%.  Assuming that I buy only one pick for each day that has picks, and that pick has the average gain for the day, the expected gain is now +3.7% for an eight-day swing.

For Monday: sell SBNY and don’t buy anything.  There haven’t been any hits since MA09.

TNA prediction: The new pickier 16-day oscillator yields very few hits, so it is no longer effective for predicting when to buy TNA.

TNA day trades: Can’t figure out how to make these consistently profitable enough to cover their trading costs.

Week of 2011 MA 13

My account rose 0.2% for the week, while SPY lost 0.1%.  The weekly chart at right makes it look like nothing happened, but the daily table below shows that the market was up and down all week.  On Tuesday my account was up 1.7%, but Friday happened to the lowpoint before the next upswing.  My stop-floor remains at an uncomfortable 89%, which is off the bottom of the chart.

SPY: I think the change in market direction will be soon.  For months it has been forecast as "early June".  Tom Carreno drew the blue lines on the SPY chart at right, which dovetails with the results from my TNA predictor (see below).  Tom has drawn many mutually-inconsistent charts recently so I could just be cherry-picking here.  But I think I’ll sell SPY on Wednesday or Thursday.

			│	Daily % gain						│	Stop %		│	Realized Gain
Symb	size	when	│	Fri	Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri	│	Beg	End	│
IAU	12%	MR24	│	3.4	4.9	5.1	4.2	4.2	3.5	│	+1.3	+1.3	│
DRETF	16%	MR30	│	2.5	2.5	2.4	1.5	1.0	0.4	│			│
REX	6%	AL04	│	1.2	3.4	6.1	5.3	5.6	4.6	│	−4.0	−2.1	│
CYD	6%	AL04	│	0.7	1.9	4.0	-9.1	-5.6	-8.5	│	−1.7	−1.7	│	−3.8%
PVH	6%	AL04	│	1.3	3.6	4.9	3.9	5.6	4.8	│	−4.3	−2.4	│
SPY	6%	MA02	│	-2.5	-2.1	-1.2	-2.3	-1.8	-2.6	│	−5.0	−4.2	│
OMCL	6%	MA03	│	-5.8	-4.7	-2.7	-3.6	-1.6	-3.4	│	−5.1	−5.1	│	−5.2%
PALL	6%	MA06	│	-1.8	0.4	0.7	-1.1	-2.4	-2.5	│	−4.2	−4.2	│
BPI	6%	MA09	│		3.7	5.1	7.8	9.2	9.2	│	−8.4	−4.5	│
ASG	6%	MA09	│		-0.4	1.4	-0.6	0.7	-0.4	│	−5.4	−4.4	│	(MA19)
HZO	6%	MA09	│		-0.4	2.2	-0.3	0.9	0.8	│	−5.4	−4.4	│	(MA19)
FDM	6%	MA10	│			1.3	-0.4	0.3	-1.3	│	−5.4	−4.4	│	(MA20)
SBNY	6%	MA11	│				-1.4	-0.5	-2.3	│	−4.4	−4.4	│	(MA23)
me			│	0.0	0.9	1.7	0.5	0.8	0.2	│			│
(Average)			│							│			│	−4.5%

IAU: David Banister’s predictions for gold have been right on the money!  Translating his $GOLD prices into IAU terms, he predicted that the price would fall to $14.26, rise to $14.82, and fall to $14.52.  His next prediction is a rise to $15.87, so I have a limit order on file to sell ¼ at $15.11 if it gets there.

DRETF: Released Q1 earnings, which were excellent yet again.  I predict that the stock will go nowhere for several weeks, then rise to a new plateau.

CYD: Earnings were terrible, so the stock gapped down.

OMCL: Got whacked by a phantom bid again.  My stop was below the official low of the day but triggered anyway.  My sale price was the official low.  I should avoid NASDAQ stocks for weekly-scan picks because bid-stops have this phantom problem and trade-stops don’t work well on that exchange.

BPI: Doing very well for its first week!

16-day oscillator:  ASG, HZO, and FDM are going to the slaughterhouse next week (and SBNY shortly thereafter).  Hopefully these pigs will fatten up soon.  For Monday, buy nothing: the only candidate is FMO which had a nasty drop on MA05 so it is unappealing.

Weekly scan:  Of the five original picks from AL04, three have now stopped out.  Average gain for the five is -0.9%, while SPY has gained 0.7% over the same period.  Second round: QTM did well, with realized gain of 7.1%.  Third round: OMCL did badly due to phantom bid that doesn’t show on the charts.  Fourth round: BPI is doing well.  No buys this week beause none of the candidates are appealing.  On Wednesday or Thursday I plan to sell quarters as needed to get the stops for REX, PVH, and BPI above water.  Two weeks after that I’ll liquidate them, hopefully near the market top.

TNA prediction

The 16-day oscillator seems to be useful for predicting the general direction of the stock market, 8 days in advance.  I am not sure why this is.  It might be related to the upcoming change in market direction, which (some say) is causing many stocks to synchronize their individual ups and downs; if that is why this trick works then it will probably stop working in a few months.

In the chart above, the blue bars indicate the number of hits on the 16-day oscillator (NASDAQ only, stocks below SMA-200 not excluded) while red is for hits on a 20-day oscillator.  Green is price of TNA.  Dark green is for when the oscillator says I should have held it.

Rule: when there is at least 1 blue and and either a red or two more blues, then buy TNA at next open, 6% stop, hold for 8 days, sell at 9th open.  If a greater buy signal shows up in the meantime, then extend the sell-date but sell some on the original sell-date to raise the effective stop.  Results for last 77 trading days:

Buy	Open	Low	Sell	Gain
JA26	$71.43	-3.1%	FE08	10.0%
FE25	$78.29	-2.0%	MR09	5.1%
MR18	$73.60	-1.0%	MR31	18.4%
AL12	$83.79	-5.0%	MA02	14.6%
MA06	$86.22	-3.2%	MA18	???

For Monday: buy TNA, limit $86.22, stop $81.05.  This is the same price as I would have paid on MA06!

Week of 2011 MA 06

A terrible week!  My account fell 4.4% in one week, while SPY lost only 1.6%.  Hopefully this is the bottom of the cycle and things will start heading back up.  I had to lower the bottom of the chart to 91%.  If all stops trigger, I’ll be down to 89.0%!

The big news this week is the success of the weekly-scan and failure of the daily-scan systems.  Except for TS, which was the weakest of the bunch, everything with a weekly-pSAR stop was retained (and hopefully will now go back up with the next market oscillation) while everything that had some other kind of stop got sold and will not be coming back.

Also successful was the sell-by-quarters system.  I was happiest with the performance of the stocks for which I had already sold some quarters.

Since there might be a “washout” downspike on Monday beore things head back up (if indeed they’re going back up), I have decided to postpone the weekly raising-of-the-stops until Monday night.

			│	Daily % gain						│	Stop %			│	Realized Gain
Symb	size	when	│	Fri	Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri	│	Beg	Fri	Mon	│
UDN	12%	MR22	│	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.1	1.3	0.9	│	+0.3	+0.3		│	+1.4%
IAU	12%	MR24	│	8.3	6.9	6.5	5.1	2.0	3.4	│	+0.7	−1.0	+1.3	│
DRETF	17%	MR30	│	1.9	1.9	2.3	2.0	1.6	2.5	│				│
TS	6%	AL04	│	0.5	-0.8	-3.5	-5.2	-7.7	-5.3	│	−7.0	−7.0		│	−7.0%
REX	6%	AL04	│	6.6	1.9	3.8	1.8	1.1	1.2	│	−6.2	−6.2	−4.0	│
CYD	6%	AL04	│	8.1	7.5	3.2	-0.1	0.6	0.7	│	−3.4	−3.4	−1.7	│
PVH	6%	AL04	│	5.6	4.1	1.5	1.7	4.5	1.3	│	−6.6	−6.6	−4.3	│
QTM	6%	AL11	│	12.2	10.7	9.9	8.3	6.4	7.4	│	+3.3	+7.1		│	+7.1%
ATML	6%	AL21	│	4.6	2.8	0.5	0.9	-1.3	1.8	│	−3.0	−3.0		│	−1.6%
CAS	6%	AL29	│	-1.0	-4.0	-4.3	-6.5	-7.9	-7.5	│	−5.3	−5.3		│	−5.8%
BZ	6%	AL29	│	4.1	-1.8	-4.8	-8.5	-8.2	-6.7	│	−5.3	−2.7		│	−2.6%
APA	6%	MA02	│		-2.2	-3.6	-5.5	-8.3	-7.3	│	−5.3	−5.1		│	−5.1%
SPY	6%	MA02	│	-0.8	-1.0	-1.4	-2.0	-2.9	-2.5	│	−8.3	−8.3	−5.0	│
OMCL	6%	MA03	│			-0.7	-1.3	-4.6	-5.8	│	−8.4	−8.4	−6.1	│
PALL	6%	MA06	│						-1.8	│	−6.3	−6.3	−4.2	│
me			│	0.0	-1.8	-2.7	-3.6	-4.4	-4.4	│				│
(Average)			│							│				│	−1.5%

UDN: I read a news article saying that “the train has left the station” regarding the US dollar’s rally and that “short-sellers were hurting”.  So I sold for a profit, which isn’t “hurting”.

IAU: Some pundit scared me with a chart of $GOLD showing a “likely support price” for the bottom of the cycle—which was below my stop price!  So I lowered my stop, but IAU gapped up on Friday so this wasn’t needed after all.

DRETF: Doing well.  Now it’s up to 17% of my account.

ATML: 8% trailing stop was not enough.  Should have used 12%.  Probably should buy this back.

BZ: Released its earnings Monday, which were only so-so.  Hopefully I got the big dividend (as reflected in gain figures above).  When Google told me the ex-div date was Monday, I raised my stop to +0.5%.  But then BZ started tanking so I lowered it.  Wrong move!  This one was almost a winner.

OMCL: Another weekly-scan pick from the AL04 group.  It has done reasonably well over the last month while I didn’t own it.

PALL: Palladium has been lagging for a while.  Hopefully it has just hit bottom and will now go up.

Weekly scan:  Seems to be working well.  For Monday: buy BPI.

Daily scan, rev 1:  Does not work!  I tried DUG, JBHT, KBALB, CAS, BZ, and APA.  All were losers.  I’m going to stop using this thing until it can be retuned for better results.

Daily scan, rev 2:  I have invented a new daily scan.  It looks for stocks that are exhibiting a 16-day oscillation and are just off their nadirs.  Buy at next day’s open, 5% hard stop, sell at the open 8 days after that.  This seems to work remarkably well over the last 60 trading days:

FE16:	VRNT +1.3%
FE24:	BGG +3.5%, REDF −5.4%
FE25:	SBUX +12.6%
MR02:	PMTC −5.4%
MR03:	CVG −5.4%
MR17:	BBL +4.9%, CLMS +5.9%, DCA +7.4%, E +1.5%, ERIC +5.2%, FXU +2.5%, SMCI +5.7%, SSP +10.1%
MR18:	ABVT +5.2%, BMC +2.3%, DDR +2.0%, DOW +1.5%, DTN +2.2%, FVL +4.0%, GAB +2.0%, GPM −1.5%, IWW +1.6%, PDP +3.3%
MR21:	CHU +2.5%
MR23:	UA +14.2%
AL07:	CTEL +5.4%, PSEC −2.5%
AL11:	LRCX −5.4%
AL12:	CMS +1.7%
AL13:	AES +0.2%, EAT +4.4%, SBUX +3.5%
AL14:	NLS −5.4%
MA05:	ARUN −0.1, KS −1.8%, MU −2.5%, NETL +0.0%, SPN −3.3%

Note the big gaps: there were only 14 days with any hits, and no hits for MR24 through AL06, and again no hits from AL15 through MA04.  There seems to be a deeper pattern here that I’m not seeing, but what I do see is an average gain of +2.5%, with 27 gainers out of 34 tries.  There are 10 gainer-days out of 14 days-with-hits, so when there are hits today and I decide to buy them, I’ve got a 70% chance that tomorrow will turn out to have been a good day to buy.

For Monday: buy ASG and HZO.  Profits, here I come!

Here is the rule-set for the 16-day oscillation daily scan:

• SMA(16,close) > today’s high.
• SMA(16,close) < low of 8 days ago.
• SMA(16,close) > high of 16 days ago.
• SMA(16,close) < low of 24 days ago.
• SMA(16,close) > high of 32 days ago.
• Today’s close < close of 4 days ago.
• Close for 8 days ago> close of 12 days ago.
• Today’s close > yesterday’s close.
• SMA(200,close) < today’s low.
• SMA(60,close) > $2.00.
• Today’s volume > 20,000 shares.
• Exchange = NYSE, AMEX, or NASDAQ.