Week of 2011 MA 20

My account lost 0.5% for the week, while SPY lost 0.3%.

IAU: Doing well.  Just bounced off its 50-day average and will probably go higher.  For Monday: buy some more.  I can increase size to 18% of account without pushing my stop below water.

DRETF: Here we go again!  They are issuing yet more new shares on JN14 at last Friday’s price.  I expect that my gain will be stuck near 1% until then.  They had just released Q1 earnings, which were excellent yet again, so the stock should “pop” soon after June 14th.  For Monday: call Schwab to ask how long the trading ban will be; buy some more after that.

			│	Daily % gain						│	Stop %		│	Realized Gain
Symb	size	when	│	Fri	Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri	│	Beg	End	│
IAU	12%	MR24	│	3.5	4.4	2.9	3.5	3.6	4.9	│	+1.3	+2.0	│
DRETF	16%	MR30	│	0.4	1.5	1.3	2.1	1.5	0.9	│			│
REX	6%	AL04	│	4.6	1.6	0.9	2.4	3.8	3.1	│	−2.1	+1.3	│
PVH	6%	AL04	│	4.8	2.3	1.0	2.1	3.7	-1.3	│	−2.4	−2.1	│
SPY	6%	MA02	│	-2.6	-3.2	-3.2	-2.3	-2.1	-2.9	│	−4.2	−4.0	│
PALL	6%	MA06	│	-2.5	-2.0	-0.9	0.9	0.1	1.2	│	−4.2	−3.5	│
BPI	6%	MA09	│	9.2	6.7	5.1	8.6	9.6	5.8	│	−4.5	+1.3	│
ASG	6%	MA09	│	-0.4	-1.1	-2.2	-1.3	-1.3	-0.8	│	−4.4	−4.4	│	−0.8%
HZO	6%	MA09	│	0.8	-0.6	-7.2	-7.1	-6.5	-9.1	│	−4.4	−4.4	│	−4.7%
FDM	6%	MA10	│	-1.3	-3.1	-3.4	-2.0	-2.1	-3.0	│	−4.4	−4.4	│	−2.3%
SBNY	6%	MA11	│	-2.3	-2.1	-1.0	-0.3	-0.5	-1.7	│	−4.4	−4.4	│	(MA23)
TNA¹	6%	MA16	│		-2.7	-3.6	0.7	1.4	-0.8	│	−3.4	−3.4	│	−5.1%
TNA²	6%	MA17	│			-0.5	3.9	4.6	2.4	│	−2.4	+2.0	│	+4.3%
TNA³	6%	MA19	│					-0.3	-2.4	│	−2.4	−1.5	│	−1.4%
me			│	0.0	-0.4	-1.0	0.1	0.2	-0.5	│			│
(Average)			│							│			│	−1.6%

REX: Had to sell half of it to get the stop above water.

BPI: Had to sell half of what was left to get the stop above water.

PVH: Never got high enough to justify selling some.  Plummeted on Friday for no apparent reason.

SPY: Never got high enough to sell it.  I guess I’ll keep it for another two weeks or so, in case there is another rally.

PALL: Doing well, but it will be another month or so until the stop gain is positive.

ASG, HZO, FDM, and SBNY: All four initial tries of the 16-day oscillator are losers!  I think this was caused by last week’s rally in the US dollar.  The pundits warned me that the rally was coming, but I didn’t understand how significant it would be.

TNA¹: This initial try of the TNA predictor was a loser.

TNA²: I tried a day-trade, with trailing 2% stop.  Winner!

TNA³: Another day-trade.  Loser!

Weekly scan:  For the five original picks from AL04, the average gain is now -2.5%, while SPY has gained +0.4% during those seven weeks.  Not very impressive!  QTM did well and now BPI has an above-water stop.  I think the weekly-scanner needs to be retuned, perhaps next month.  I would like the *median* gain to be positive, so I can reasonably expect a gain from each purchase.  The current tuning is for maximizing the *average* gain, but I’m getting tired of all the losses and anyway the sell-by-quarters system drastically reduces the maximum possible gain.  For Monday: buy VSR.  Maybe sell it on MA27 before its “earnings fever” wears off.

16-day oscillator

Revised criteria, which are now pickier that the stock chart needs to show an 'M' shape and have decent volume:

• SMA(16,close) > today’s high.
• SMA(16,close) < low of 8 days ago.
• SMA(16,close) > high of 16 days ago.
• SMA(16,close) < low of 24 days ago.
• SMA(16,close) > high of 32 days ago.
• Yesteray’s close < close of 5 days ago. (changed)
• Close for 9 days ago > close of 13 days ago. (changed)
• Close for 21 days ago < close of 25 days ago. (changed)
• Close for 29 days ago > close of 33 days ago. (new)
• Close for 8 days ago > close of 24 days ago × 0.99 (new)
• Today’s close > yesterday’s close.
• SMA(200,close) < today’s low.
• SMA(60,close) > $2.00.
• Today’s volume > 20,000 shares.
• SMA(60,volume) > 20,000 shares. (new)
• Exchange = NYSE, AMEX, or NASDAQ.

Using these criteria, SBNY would not have been selected on MA10.

New rule: If $USD closes above its six-day price channel, don’t buy anything the next day and sell any 16-day osc picks currently owned.  During the last four months, $USD closed above its price channel on FE11, MR10, MA05, MA06, MA11, and MA13.

Effects of new rule: For JA31, BOFI would have been sold for +0.2% gain on FE11 instead of -0.8% gain on FE14.  For FE25, GWW would have been sold for +1.1% instead of +2.1% (oh well) but SNV would have been -4.4% in either case.  The main effect is on MA05 and MA06 which had ten picks, mostly losers, whose purchase would have been blocked by this rule — including ASG.  For MA09 this rule would have forced sale on MA11, reducing the loss for HZO to only -2.0%.

This rule raises average gain from -0.3% to +0.8%.  Assuming that I buy only one pick for each day that has picks, and that pick has the average gain for the day, the expected gain is now +3.7% for an eight-day swing.

For Monday: sell SBNY and don’t buy anything.  There haven’t been any hits since MA09.

TNA prediction: The new pickier 16-day oscillator yields very few hits, so it is no longer effective for predicting when to buy TNA.

TNA day trades: Can’t figure out how to make these consistently profitable enough to cover their trading costs.