My account lost 0.5% for the week, while SPY lost 0.3%.
IAU: Doing well. Just bounced off its 50-day average and will probably go higher. For Monday: buy some more. I can increase size to 18% of account without pushing my stop below water.
DRETF: Here we go again! They are issuing yet more new shares on JN14 at last Friday’s price. I expect that my gain will be stuck near 1% until then. They had just released Q1 earnings, which were excellent yet again, so the stock should “pop” soon after June 14th. For Monday: call Schwab to ask how long the trading ban will be; buy some more after that.
|│||Daily % gain||│||Stop %||│||Realized|
REX: Had to sell half of it to get the stop above water.
BPI: Had to sell half of what was left to get the stop above water.
PVH: Never got high enough to justify selling some. Plummeted on Friday for no apparent reason.
SPY: Never got high enough to sell it. I guess I’ll keep it for another two weeks or so, in case there is another rally.
PALL: Doing well, but it will be another month or so until the stop gain is positive.
ASG, HZO, FDM, and SBNY: All four initial tries of the 16-day oscillator are losers! I think this was caused by last week’s rally in the US dollar. The pundits warned me that the rally was coming, but I didn’t understand how significant it would be.
TNA¹: This initial try of the TNA predictor was a loser.
TNA²: I tried a day-trade, with trailing 2% stop. Winner!
TNA³: Another day-trade. Loser!
Weekly scan: For the five original picks from AL04, the average gain is now -2.5%, while SPY has gained +0.4% during those seven weeks. Not very impressive! QTM did well and now BPI has an above-water stop. I think the weekly-scanner needs to be retuned, perhaps next month. I would like the *median* gain to be positive, so I can reasonably expect a gain from each purchase. The current tuning is for maximizing the *average* gain, but I’m getting tired of all the losses and anyway the sell-by-quarters system drastically reduces the maximum possible gain. For Monday: buy VSR. Maybe sell it on MA27 before its “earnings fever” wears off.
16-day oscillatorRevised criteria, which are now pickier that the stock chart needs to show an 'M' shape and have decent volume:
- SMA(16,close) > today’s high.
- SMA(16,close) < low of 8 days ago.
- SMA(16,close) > high of 16 days ago.
- SMA(16,close) < low of 24 days ago.
- SMA(16,close) > high of 32 days ago.
- Yesteray’s close < close of 5 days ago. (changed)
- Close for 9 days ago > close of 13 days ago. (changed)
- Close for 21 days ago < close of 25 days ago. (changed)
- Close for 29 days ago > close of 33 days ago. (new)
- Close for 8 days ago > close of 24 days ago × 0.99 (new)
- Today’s close > yesterday’s close.
- SMA(200,close) < today’s low.
- SMA(60,close) > $2.00.
- Today’s volume > 20,000 shares.
- SMA(60,volume) > 20,000 shares. (new)
- Exchange = NYSE, AMEX, or NASDAQ.
New rule: If $USD closes above its six-day price channel, don’t buy anything the next day and sell any 16-day osc picks currently owned. During the last four months, $USD closed above its price channel on FE11, MR10, MA05, MA06, MA11, and MA13.
Effects of new rule: For JA31, BOFI would have been sold for +0.2% gain on FE11 instead of -0.8% gain on FE14. For FE25, GWW would have been sold for +1.1% instead of +2.1% (oh well) but SNV would have been -4.4% in either case. The main effect is on MA05 and MA06 which had ten picks, mostly losers, whose purchase would have been blocked by this rule — including ASG. For MA09 this rule would have forced sale on MA11, reducing the loss for HZO to only -2.0%.
This rule raises average gain from -0.3% to +0.8%. Assuming that I buy only one pick for each day that has picks, and that pick has the average gain for the day, the expected gain is now +3.7% for an eight-day swing.
For Monday: sell SBNY and don’t buy anything. There haven’t been any hits since MA09.
TNA prediction: The new pickier 16-day oscillator yields very few hits, so it is no longer effective for predicting when to buy TNA.
TNA day trades: Can’t figure out how to make these consistently profitable enough to cover their trading costs.