Week of 2011 SE 16

(This is a back-dated entry.  The week of 2011 SE 16 was so awful, I didn’t feel like writing it up at the time.)

SPY rose by 4.8% this week, while my account fell 2.6% to its lowest level ever.  I bought TZA, thinking that the small-caps would go down, but instead they had their best week in two years!

		│	Daily % gain size owned												│	Max % loss		│	Results
Symbol	since	│	Fri		Mon		Tue		Wed		Thu		Fri		│	Beg	End	│
RWM	JL01	│	3.1	22 50	2.6	22 50	1.7	21 50	0.8	21 50	0.2	21 50	0.1	21 50	│	−2.3	−2.3	│
old puts		│	-1.4	0 0	-1.4	0 0	-1.4	0 0	-1.4	0 0	-1.4	0 0	-1.4	0 0	│			│
SEp31	AU30	│	-0.8	0.1	-0.8	0.1	-1.0	0.1	-0.7	0.1	-0.7	0.1	-1.0	0	│	−1.0	−1.0	│	−1.0%
RPRX	JL25	│	-26.4	2	-29.7	2	-22.2	2	-19.6	3	-19.9	3	-19.4	3	│	+15.5	+15.5	│
NOp7½	JL25	│	18.5	1.5	20.5	1.5	15.0	1.4	12.0	1.3	12.7	1.3	12.6	1.3	│	−23.2	−23.2	│
SCHA	SE07	│	-2.7	25	-2.1	25	-0.5	0							│			│	+0.3%
TZA	SE12	│			-4.5	6	-9.2	6	-14.0	5	-10.1	11	-10.7	11	│			│
SPY		│	0.0		0.6		1.6		3.0		4.8		4.7		│			│
me		│	0.0		-0.5		-1.2		-1.8		-2.3		-2.6		│			│

RWM: Combined the already-sold puts into a single ”old puts” item whose value is frozen.  All changes in put-value are now assigned to the remaining live put.  This seems more sensible.
      As expected, the $31 put expired worthless.  There were no bids and so I couldn’t sell it for even a penny.  Next week it will be combined with ”old puts”.

SCHA: Last week’s sale settled on Tuesday.  My MACD-based system gave a ”buy” signal on Tuesday, but I didn’t buy because it seemed overhead resistance was too close.  But the market zoomed past the resistance.  I should have obeyed my own rules.  Discipline!

TZA: Bought on Monday, even though I have not yet back-tested any system for deciding when to sell it, because the news coming out of Europe suggests an implosion is imminent.  Bought more on Thursday because the rally seemed to be running out of steam (MACD gave a ”sell” signal). The market had better go down soon!

Week of 2011 SE 09

SPY fell by 1.6% this week, while my account managed to eke out a 0.1% gain.  The market has spent the last five weeks coiling itself up into an ever-narrowing trading range.  It ended Friday at the bottom of its range (or below its range, depending on how you draw the trendlines).  On Monday, the market should either bounce or crash.

Euro news: The Constitutional Court of Germany said what was politically necessary for it to say to preserve the EU.  But by Friday, the #2 man at the ECB quit his job, presumably because he thinks the sovereign default they are paying billions to postpone is unavoidable.  Rumours immediately started swirling that Greece will default on its debts this weekend.  If the prices on credit-default swaps are to be believed, the likelihood of a Greek default is about 90%.

Economy: The OECD said Thursday that Q4 world economic output will rise only 1.0%.  The OECD’s figure is probably overoptimistic.

US markets were closed on Monday for Labor Day.

		│	Daily % gain size owned												│	Max % loss		│	Results
Symbol	since	│	Fri		Mon		Tue		Wed		Thu		Fri		│	Beg	End	│
RWM	JL01	│	3.2	26 67			2.6	31 50	0.6	30 50	1.6	30 50	3.1	22 50	│	−2.3	−2.3	│
AUp30	JL01	│	-0.6	0 0			-0.5	0 0	-0.5	0 0	-0.5	0 0	-0.5	0 0	│			│
SEp34	AU08	│	-1.2	0 0			-1.1	0 0	-1.0	0 0	-1.0	0 0	-1.0	0 0	│			│
SEp31	AU30	│	-0.6	0.1			-0.6	0.1	-0.6	0.3	-0.6	0.1	-0.6	0.1	│	−1.0	−1.0	│
RPRX	JL25	│	-21.8	2			-23.3	2	-17.7	2	-21.7	2	-26.4	2	│	+15.5	+15.5	│
NOp7½	JL25	│	15.0	1.4			16.5	1.4	11.5	1.3	14.9	1.4	18.5	1.5	│	−23.2	−23.2	│
SCHA#0	AU23	│	0.1	30 34			0.0	30 34	1.3	20 34	0.7	0 34			│			│	+0.6%
DRETF	AU29	│	-1.8	8			-3.0	8	-1.1	8	-2.0	0			│			│	−2.8%
TNA	AU31	│	-7.8	14 42			-8.3	14 42	-4.2	15 42	-6.4	0 42			│			│	−5.6%
SCHA#1	SE07	│							1.6	25	0.1	25	-2.7	25	│	−5.0	−3.3	│	+0.3%
SPY		│	0.0				-0.7		2.1		1.0		-1.6		│			│
me		│	0.0				-0.1		-0.5		-0.5		0.1		│			│

RWM: Bought more on Tuesday.  Used a 3% trailing stop on those shares and the ones from last Friday, which stopped out just before the close on Tuesday and settled on Friday.
      Because I have a put, and have already sold half the total shares purchased, I cannot lose more than 2.3% on RWM.  But if I exercise the put then I will lose the 1.0% I spent on it, for a total loss of 3.3%.
      Even if the market bounces next week, it seems the put will expire worthless next Friday.  Schwab claims that the put is worth 25¢ per share because that was the last trade price, but there have been no bids for several days so there is no one who would buy it from me.  Effectively, its value is already zero.

RPRX: Not going anywhere.  It’s getting close to the time when I said I would make a keep/dump decision for RPRX.  It’s looking like the answer is going to be “dump”.  If the market bounces, I could sell the put and ride the stock up the bounce (but this approach didn’t work when I tried it with FRED).

SCHA#0: Last week’s sales settled this Wednesday & Thursday.

SCHA#1: First use of the new MACD-based trading system.  Works!  Bought 11:02am Wednesday; sold 3:00pm Thursday.  This prevented my account balance from going any more negative than -0.5%, although I ended up not gaining much from the trade itself.

IAU: It’s not trending, so I’m not buying.

MACD-based trades

The SCHA#1 trade yielded a 0.3% gain.  According to the IWM chart, buying that security at 11:00am and selling at 3:00pm should have yielded a 0.04% loss before trading costs, but SCHA doesn't track IWM quite that precisely.  Since my median gain with these hourly trades is only about +0.4%, a 0.3% difference between theory and practice is a big deal!  I have no idea how often the divergence will be in my favour like this.

Looking at the chart all day, I wish I had bought SCHA earlier and sold earlier.  I have invented a new trading scheme:

• Buy (if not already bought) when PPO has risen by at least 1.1 over the last 11 hours, even if price is below SMA(n), even if price fell during the last hour.  Do not sell due to PPO going below ϶ until after it has risen above ϵ.
• Sell (if not already sold) when PPO has fallen by at least 0.35 over the last 11 hours, even if price rose during the last hour.  Do not buy back due to PPO exceeding ϵ until after it has fallen below ϶.
• Increase ϵ to 0.4 and ϶ to 0.07.
• Other rules same as last week’s hourly system.  Now that there are two rules for ”buy” and two for ”sell”, I will buy when either rule triggers and sell when either rule triggers.

This ruleset would have made a profit of 4.0% this week, rather than -0.04%.  It still shows an overall profit of about 26% over the last year, but the win:loss ratio is now 21:11 rather than 28:20.  There would have been 66 trades out of roughly 1250 hourly checks of the market, so 95% of the time when I checked the answer would have been ”do nothing”.  I am not sure that I can maintain such a low activity level!

I also tried doing calculations using TRIX.  By the time I got it tuned, it was producing approximately the same answers as PPO—but its profits were better than PPO's only during the previous bull market and worse during our current bear, which is the opposite of what I want.  So I’ll stick with PPO for now.

Week of 2011 SE 02

SPY fell 0.1% this week, while my account fell 1.2% to its lowest level ever!  Once again the “relief rally” is cancelled.  I bet that gold would go down, but it went up.  I bet that DRETF and TNA would go up, but they went down.  I need a more reliable trading paradigm.  See MACD-based trades below.

Euro news: Next Wednesday, the Constitutional Court of Germany will rule on whether it is permissible for Germany+France to bail out Greece, given that the Lisbon treaty says ”countries may not assume other countries’ debts”.  If they say no, the Euro is dead.

		│	Daily % gain size owned												│	Max % loss		│	Results
Symbol	since	│	Fri		Mon		Tue		Wed		Thu		Fri		│	Beg	End	│
RWM	JL01	│	3.0	30 63	-0.1	20 63	-0.5	20 63	-0.3	20 63	1.0	21 63	3.2	26 67	│			│
AUp30	JL01	│	-0.6	0 0	-0.6	0 0	-0.5	0 0	-0.5	0 0	-0.7	0 0	-0.6	0 0	│			│
SEp34	AU08	│	-1.3	0 0	-1.2	0 0	-0.9	0 0	-1.0	0 0	-1.3	0 0	-1.2	0 0	│			│
SEp31	AU30	│					-0.5	0.4	-0.6	0.3	-0.7	0.1	-0.6	0.1	│			│
IAU	JL25	│	5.6	22	3.5	0									│			│	+2.6%
SEp17	AU11	│	-2.2	0	-2.1	0									│			│	−2.1%
RPRX	JL25	│	-30.4	2	-23.8	2	-22.2	2	-24.7	2	-23.5	2	-21.8	2	│	−7.7	−7.7	│
NOp7½	JL25	│	7.7	1.0	16.0	1.4	5.8	1.0	6.4	1.0	6.1	1.0	15.0	1.4	│			│
SCHA	AU23	│	0.6	44 39	2.4	47 46	2.4	36 52	2.5	30 52	1.3	30 34	0.1	30 34	│	−3.6	+0.4	│	+0.6%
DGZ	AU29	│			-0.3	4	-4.0	4	-2.8	4	-2.9	4	-6.1	0	│	−2.4	−2.4	│	−3.0%
DRETF	AU29	│			-0.5	8	-0.9	8	-1.4	8	-1.4	8	-1.8	8	│	−2.8	−2.8	│	−2.8%
TNA	AU31	│							-0.9	15 42	-3.5	15 42	-7.8	14 42	│			│	−5.6%
SPY		│	0.0		2.9		3.1		3.6		2.5		-0.1		│			│
me		│	0.0		-0.2		-0.3		-0.5		-1.2		-1.2		│			│

RWM: On Monday the shares I sold last week were settled.  Bought more on Friday to prepare for the Big Drop if it happens this weekend.
      On Tuesday I bought another put, since I had expected a relief rally.  Looks like the put will expire worthless at the end of next week.  It is the nearly-invisible red line on the pie chart.

SCHA: Bought more Monday and Tuesday.  Previously-sold shares settled Tuesday and Wednesday.  Sold more on Thursday.  Sold all on Friday.  I need a better system for deciding when to buy and sell!

DGZ: I thought gold would go down, but it went up.

DRETF: I thought real estate would go up, but it went down.

TNA: Tried to catch the bottom on Wednesday, but missed on the first try.  Sold and bought some more at lower price.  Went down again.

MACD-based trades

Over the past year, on and off, I have been trying to figure out how to use MACD to get reliable profits.  I might finally have something!

Basic rules:

• Always buy blocks of the same dollar value, regardless of gain/loss from previous round (no compounding, more shares at lower prices).
• Use PPO(q,s,p), which is MACD(q,s,p) ÷ price so the numbers represent %change.
• Apply PPO to IWM, because it has a lot of volume and thus is hard for the bad actors to manipulate.  Do the actual buys/sells using SCHA because it has no trading commissions.  Generally, SCHA tracks the ups and downs in IWM quite well.
• Re-evaluate PPO at end of each period (hourly, daily, or weekly).
• Buy (if not already bought) when PPO > ϵ, the “epsilon” parameter.
• Sell (if not already sold) when PPO < ϶, the “negative epsilon” parameter.
• Emergency sale when price < peak × (1-trailing), the trailing stop.
• Do not buy if price fell during this period.  Do not sell if price rose during this period.  [This avoids “stupid moves” where the stock has changed direction but PPO hasn’t noticed yet.]
• Do not buy if price < SMA(n).  [This rule actually reduces profit slightly, but avoids another class of ”stupid move” that leads to occasional large losses.]

Here are simulated results for last 12 months.  The “profit” is expressed as a fraction of the block size.

	Inputs					Outputs
Period	PPO(q,s,p)	ϵ	϶	trailing	SMA(n)	Wins:Losses	Profit
Hourly	5,30,10	0.15%	0.05%	5%	20	28:20	26%
Daily	5,25,12	0.10%	0.05%	7%	10	5:3	19%
Weekly	5,30,10	1.00%	-1.00%	8%	10	1:0	22%

The ”weekly” rule says I should have bought at the open on October 3, 2010 and sold at the open on May 22, 2011 for a 22% profit!  At no time during those seven months did SCHA’s price ever fall more than 8% below its peak so far.  A nice, effective rule—but very rarely active. Over the last three years it would have triggered only five times, with four wins and one loss for an overall gain of 27%, during a period when the market lost 9%.  It says (and I think it is correct) that I should not own SCHA right now.

The ”daily” rule is apparently the most popular among traders, but it seems to have the most problems.  Its overall profit score is the lowest.  It requires that I buy and sell precisely at 4 PM (profits would be even lower if I used the next day’s opening price).  Worst of all, it says I should own SCHA as of today!  I don’t think so.  Perhaps I should just not use the daily rule.

The ”hourly” rule has seven times as much data to work with as the daily rule, so it does a better job.  It says I should have bought SCHA on August 26th at 1PM and sold August 31st at 12PM (5.5% gain) and not own any right now, which seems right. The main problem with the hourly rule is that it requires me to check the market every hour on the hour, all day every day.  Since this is unrealistic, I have adjusted the simulation to assume that I will not buy/sell based on the PPO for the first hour of each day (before I get out of bed) or the last hour of the day (requires sniping that 4PM price).  Oddly enough, skipping those hours improves profit slightly!  Other hours will have to be skipped because it’s just too inconvenient to check the market every hour of every day.  I am not sure yet how much profit will be lost that way.

If this thing actually works with SCHA, the next move would be to apply it to TNA, which tracks the same ups and downs as IWM but leveraged 3× (before fees).  Here are some comparative gain charts:

Period	Start	End	IWM	TNA	Trade time
Weekly	2010-07-01	2011-09-01	22%	66%	Monday 9:30AM
Daily	2010-07-01	2011-09-01	21%	65% 51%	Same day 4PM Next day 9:30AM
Hourly	2011-06-01	2011-09-01	16%	40%	Top of the hour

Looks great!  The problem is that if I screw up and get losses when the simulation says I should have had gains, the losses will be tripled.  I think I’ll stick with SCHA until this system proves itself.

Week of 2011 AU 26

SPY rose 4.7% this week, while my account fell 3.1% to its lowest level ever!  It seems the “counter­balancing” method does not work.  I buy SCHA when it is going up and sell when it is going down, so I am “buying high, selling low”.  The deleterious effects of these maneuvers were masked by the parabolic rise in IAU, but now that gold has gone into correction these losses have become visible.

		│	Daily % gain size owned												│	Max % loss		│	Results
Symbol	since	│	Fri		Mon		Tue		Wed		Thu		Fri		│	Beg	End	│
RWM	JL01	│	9.3	26 86	9.4	26 86	4.9	26 86	3.9	26 57	4.6	30 63	3.0	30 63	│			│
AUp30	JL01	│	-0.4	0 0	-0.4	0 0	-0.3	0 0	-0.3	0 0	-0.3	0 0	-0.3	0 0	│			│
SEp34	AU08	│	-2.1	0 0	-2.1	0 0	-1.9	0 0	-1.9	0 0	-1.7	0 0	-1.6	0 0	│			│
IAU	JL25	│	9.8	19	12.6	18	5.8	22	2.2	22	2.2	22	5.6	22	│	+3.8	+3.2	│	+2.6%
SEp17	AU11	│	-2.4	0.1	-3.0	0.1	-2.2	0.1	-2.1	0	-2.1	0	-2.2	0	│			│	−2.1%
RPRX	JL25	│	-31.8	2	-35.9	2	-33.0	2	-33.3	2	-32.3	2	-30.4	2	│	−7.7	−7.7	│
NOp7½	JL25	│	8.0	0.9	8.9	0.9	8.3	1.0	8.3	1.0	8.1	1.0	7.7	1.0	│			│
SCHA#2	AU15	│	-8.1	5	-8.2	5	-4.2	0							│			│	−4.2%
SCHA#3	AU15	│	-9.1	11	-9.2	11	-5.3	0							│			│	−5.3%
SCHA#4	AU16	│	-7.9	11	-8.0	11	-4.0	0							│			│	−4.0%
SCHA#5	AU18	│	-1.7	5	-1.8	5	2.5	5	4.2	5					│			│	−2.0%
SCHA#6	AU22	│			-2.9	20	1.3	20	3.0	20	0.6	0			│			│	−3.6%
SCHA#7	AU23	│					0.1	11	1.3	23 83	1.0	32 34	0.6	44 39	│		-3.6	│
SPY		│	0.0		0.1		3.4		4.8		3.2		4.7		│			│
me		│	0.0		-0.3		-2.4		-3.1		-3.2		-3.1		│			│

RWM: Doing okay, but I can’t decide how much of it I want to own.  Sold 9% of account on Wednesday, bought 4% on Thursday.  The news from Europe is still awful so I want to have a lot of RWM on hand for the next Big Drop.

IAU: On Tuesday I sold the put, bought more shares, and put them on a 5½% trailing stop to prepare for the ”blow-off top” that might be coming.  But on Wednesday the trailing stop was about to trigger so I turned it off and tried to sell manually for more money.  Bad move!  Lost virtually all the profits.
      What’s next for gold?  It will either do a ”dead-cat bounce” followed by a drop down to maybe $1600/oz, or it will do yet another ”head-fake correction” and immediately start upward again.

RPRX: I do not understand why the bid prices on the puts are so ridiculously low and have been all week.

SCHA#6: Bought a big block on Monday.  Then the price started going down, so I wanted to put it on a 3% trailing stop.  But somehow I miskeyed the order: instead of “3% below current price” it went in as ”3% below purchase price” and the sell order triggered immediately, losing 0.7% of my account balance in one bumbling move!  Then SCHA proceeded to go up a lot, adding insult to injury.

SCHA#7: More attempts to get my timing right, buying and selling all week.  Finally got it right on Friday: bought low, sold some at a higher price, kept the rest for the weekend.

DRETF: Had a very nice day on Tuesday.  Is now above its 50-day moving average.  Might consider buying it again.

Week of 2011 AU 19

My account gained 0.5% this week, while SPY fell 4.6%.  I’m just 0.5% away from beating SPY for year-to-date!

News: It looks like the “two-week rally” has been cancelled.  The news out of Europe is very bad.  Europeans liked the recent France+Germany conference on the national debts about as little as they liked the Republicans+Democrats on the US deficit.

		│	Daily % gain size owned												│	Max % loss		│	Results
Symbol	since	│	Fri		Mon		Tue		Wed		Thu		Fri		│	Beg	End	│
DRETF	MR30	│	-4.2	0	-3.7	0	-4.4	0							│			│	−4.0%
div.	—	│	1.5	0.1 25	1.5	0.1 25	1.5	0 0							│			│	+1.5%
FRED	MA31	│	-18.2	11	-17.0	11	-17.9	10	-20.0	0					│			│	−19.2%
AUp15	JN20	│	— AU09												│			│	+8.6%
AUp12½	JN20	│	— AU09												│			│	+2.9%
RWM	JL01	│	6.0	19 82	3.4	18 82	4.9	18 82	5.0	18 82	10.1	19 82	9.3	26 86	│			│
AUp30	JL01	│	-0.5	0 0	-0.4	0 0	-0.4	0 0	-0.4	0 0	-0.5	0 0	-0.4	0 0	│			│
SEp34	AU08	│	-1.3	0 0	-2.4	0 0	-2.5	0 0	-2.5	0 0	-2.7	0 0	-2.1	0 0	│			│
SCHA#0	JL14	│	-0.2	8 63	1.6	8 63	0.5	8 63	0.3	0 63					│			│	−0.2%
IAU	JL25	│	7.5	12	8.7	13	10.0	13	10.3	13	12.4	13	9.8	19	│	+3.0	+3.8	│
SEp17	AU11	│	-1.7	0.3	-2.1	0.3	-2.4	0.2	-3.0	0.2	-3.4	0.1	-2.4	0.1	│			│
RPRX	JL25	│	-26.0	2	-24.3	2	-26.7	2	-24.1	2	-29.1	2	-31.8	2	│	−7.7	−7.7	│
NOp7½	JL25	│	19.7	1.4	17.4	1.4	19.2	1.4	16.7	1.4	7.4	0.9	8.0	0.9	│			│
FXF	AU01	│	0.1	13 48	-0.4	6 48	-0.8	0 48							│			│	+1.3%
SCHA#1	AU15	│			1.7	6	0.0	6	-0.3	6	-6.7	5	-7.7	0	│	−1.0	+0.7	│	+0.1%
SCHA#2	AU15	│			1.3	6	-0.4	6	-0.7	6	-6.4	5	-8.1	5	│	−3.0	−1.7	│	-4.2%
SCHA#3	AU15	│			1.3	12	-1.5	11	-1.8	11	-7.5	11	-9.1	11	│	−4.8	−4.8	│	-5.3%
SCHA#4	AU16	│					-0.2	11	-0.5	11	-6.3	11	-7.9	11	│	−2.3	−2.3	│	-4.0%
SCHA#5	AU18	│									0.1	5	-1.7	5	│	−1.0	−1.0	│	-2.0%
SPY		│	0.0		2.1		1.2		1.3		-3.1		-4.6		│			│
me		│	0.0		-0.3		-0.2		-0.3		0.0		0.5		│			│

DRETF: Dividend arrived on Tuesday.  The next dividend will become payable on Friday AU26 or so, but the stock is not doing well so I don’t think I’ll buy it back yet.

FRED: Friday’s sale of the shares settled on Wednesday.  There doesn’t seem to be any point in showing daily values for the already-sold puts.

RWM: Doing great!  Increased my holdings on Friday to prepare for a possible crash next Monday; now it’s 26% of the account.
      Although the puts were sold some time ago, their daily values continue to fluctuate because they are addends to the daily percentage gain for the shares.  Math is hard!

IAU: Doing great!  Gold is confounding the pundits by continuing to climb.  Increased my holdings on Friday; now it’s 19% of the account.  The new shares have a 5% trailing stop (which is higher than the put strike price for the old shares) because gold almost never drops 5% from its peaks unless it’s going into a major correction.  The price of the puts seems ridiculously low; perhaps this is a side-effect of Options Expiration week?

RPRX: Continuing to do badly.  As with gold, the put-price seems ridiculous.  Hopefully it will pick up next week after Options Expiration week ends.  The max-loss value is less negative this week because I’m still trying to get the math right; the actual max-loss value (whatever it is) hasn’t changed.

FXF: ½ sold Wednesday settled on Monday; ½ sold Thursday settled on Tuesday.  Looks like the bull run is over for now.

SCHA: This week I decided to record each purchase of SCHA separately, since they have different max-loss values.  But in the end it didn’t matter because my “emergency stop — sell all SCHA!” order triggered at Thursday’s open.  Overall, the picture we see is similar to two weeks ago: unexpectedly low prices on Wednesday, mini-crash on Thursday, rout on Friday, leading to a crash(?) on Monday.  I am so ready!
      SCHA#0: Leftover shares from last week.  Settled on Wednesday.
      SCHA#1: 1% trailing stop.  Sold at gap-down on Tuesday, but still eked out a profit!  Settled on Friday.
      SCHA#2: 3% trailing stop.
      SCHA#3: Fixed-price stop at the ”emergency sell-all” level.
      SCHA#4: 3% trailing stop from a lower starting price.
      SCHA#5: 1% trailing stop, bought at 3:59PM in case the market gapped up on Friday—but it gapped down instead.

On the pie chart, the yellow strip for the IAU puts is nearly invisible.  It is much smaller than it should be because the last-sale price was too low.  Also, the brown strip for the RPRX puts is way too small.  I am not sure what this is trying to tell me.  Are RPRX speculators panicing and selling their puts for waaay below intrinsic value?  Is RPRX about to go out of business and I should exercise the options while I still can?  Hopefully things will clear up next week.

If there is a crash on Monday, I plan to spend all available cash buying SCHA near the close, to prevent lossage from a rebound on Tuesday.  But I won’t have enough settled cash to completely neutralize RWM until Tuesday when most of the already-sold SCHA shares settle.