My account rose 0.6% this week, while SPY fell 0.2%.
I decided not to buy CZM (which did well) because it's a Chinese stock like CYD (which did okay) and I didn’t want to be “overweighted on China”. So instead I bought PVH which did badly. Overall, 3 of the 5 initial purchases using the weekly scanner had gains in their first week and none of them stopped out, which was better than expected.
For a sample of 100 stocks over the last three years, the weekly scan’s average result is a gain of 4.6% over 5 weeks (so maybe 40% per year), while the daily scan’s average is 1.8% gain in 6 days (plus 3 days' settlement time, so maybe 50% per year, assuming as usual that volatility cancels out compounding).
|│||Daily % gain||│||Stop||│||Realized|
UDN: This thing moves very slowly. Some pundits think it might jump 6% soon, but it’s gone up only 8% over the last year. I’ve put in a limit order to sell ¼ of it if it goes up another 0.6%. I need more spare cash to buy weekly-scan and daily-scan picks!
IAU: Finally went up. At this rate, it will be another three weeks before my stop is above water. I’m still seeing lots of pundits saying that it will rise 40% over the next three months, plus a few who think it will have a correction first.
Changes to weekly-scan parameters: Schwab does not support fractional stop-loss percentages, so I reduced my stop-depth from 8.5% to 8%. To permit purchase, I now require that PPO(4,10,7) must be at least 1.25%, the weekly low must not be more than 5% above SMA(8), and ROC(7) must be less than 8%.
There are lots of hits this week! Likely candidates: COPX, QTM, PBY, CIS. Of these, QTM has highest PPO and lowest price compared to SMA. PBY has the next-best PPO but CIS has the next-best price. Decision: buy QTM at Monday's open.
I ended up taking the no-brainer approach: the daily scanner uses the same program code as the weekly scanner, but with different parameters:
|5%||Max stop depth|
|0.3%||Max price increase from decision to purchase|
|0.5%||Min PPO histogram|
|110%||Min rise in PPO from previous day|
|6%||Max distance from SMA up to daily low.|
|0.8%||Min PVO histogram|
|0.95||Min ratio of +DI/-DI|
|0.16, 0.16||pSAR params|
|11, 27, 9||PPO and PVO params|
Many days have lots of hits with these parameters, but not today! The scan finds only AER, which just had a big jump and might fall back on Monday. Reducing the min-PPO criterion finds HGR, which might be good. Decision: buy nothing; recheck Monday night. I don’t have enough open portfolio slots to buy a daily-scan every day, so I shouldn’t waste a slot on a marginal candidate.