Friday 29 April 2011

Week of 2011 AL 29

A good week!  My account rose 1.7% this week, while SPY rose 2.0%.  Everything I own is now worth more than I paid for it, except for CAS which was just bought today.  If all my stops triggered, the expected loss would reduce my account balance to 90.4% which is off the bottom of this chart, but still it’s 0.5% better than last week.

Daily % gainStop %Realized
Symb size when Thu Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Beg End
UDN 12% MR22 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.1 −0.5 +0.3
IAU 12% MR24 4.3 4.4 4.1 6.1 6.5 8.3 −0.5 +0.7
DRETF 16% MR30 0.8 2.1 2.5 0.9 1.8 1.9
TS 6% AL04 -1.8 -2.7 -2.6 -1.3 -0.9 0.5 −7.2 −7.0
REX 6% AL04 1.5 3.2 3.3 3.3 6.4 6.6 −7.2 −6.2
CYD 6% AL04 5.6 3.5 6.5 8.3 7.3 8.1 −8.3 −3.4
PVH 6% AL04 3.3 4.2 3.8 7.3 7.3 5.6 −8.3 −6.6
QTM 6% AL11 10.3 10.0 11.4 10.3 9.7 12.2 +2.8 +3.3
JBHT 6% AL18 -1.2 -1.8 -0.7 0.2 0.2 -0.6 −2.9 −2.9 −2.9%
ATML 6% AL21 1.6 0.7 3.8 4.0 2.9 4.6 −6.5 −3.0
KBALB 6% AL21 -3.6 -4.6 -2.9 -4.4 -4.4 -4.7 −5.3 −5.3 −5.4%
CAS 6% AL29 -1.0 −5.3 −5.3
BZ 6% AL29 4.1 −5.3 −4.6
SPY 0.0 -0.2 0.8 1.4 1.8 2.0
me 0.0 -0.1 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.7
(Average) −4.2%

UDN: Rose rather quickly from 1% gain to 2%, so I sold another ¼ on Wednesday.  Then rose even more quickly to 3% gain, but I didn’t sell another ¼ because the effective stop-gain is now positive.

IAU: Stop price is now above water!  Many pundits think that this thing will be heading skyward for at least another month.

TS: The gain is positive!  It’s not much, but it’s positive.  For the five original weekly-scan purchases (including EK which has stopped out already), average gain is +3.5% over four weeks, while SPY has gained only 2.6% during that time.  Hmm… maybe this weekly-scanner thing actually works???

CYD: Rose by as much as the initial stop would have allowed it to fall, so I sold ¼ because that effectively cut the stop-depth in half.

PVH: I have a limit order on file to sell ¼ if this thing reaches +8%, but it isn't quite there yet.

QTM: Still doing well.  Another win for the weekly-scanner!

JBHT and KBALB: They both got whacked by S&P’s announcement on Monday that the US govt credit rating might have to be lowered someday.  They then recovered after throwing me off, but still nothing to write home about.

CAS and BZ: So far, every daily-scan purchase has been a loser, but I am trying two more.  BZ is especially interesting: it releases its earnings next Monday, but it has already announced a special dividend for shareholders-of-record next Wednesday.  Hopefully the special dividend is a strong hint that the earnings report will be excellent.

Review of last week:
      DUG and EK are way down!  I sold DUG at -5.1% gain; today it would be -10.5%.  I sold EK for -3.3%; today it is down to -16.6%.
      LRN was a buy-failure last week.  If I had bought at the opening price instead of using a limit, it would be a 3.6% gainer today!  Oh well.

Weekly scan:  None of this week’s candidates seem appealing.  A recheck of last week’s candidates and those for the week before doesn’t find anything that I particularly want to buy right now.  Many pundits have been predicting since February that the US markets will drop in mid-June as QE2 is ending, so it will soon be too late to buy a weekly-scan pick and expect its stop to be above water after only six weeks. 

Daily scan:  Buy APA for Monday.  I should come up with a rule for when a daily-scan pick should be converted to a weekly, since APA might be a candidate for that.  The difference is that a daily gets a 5% stop and a pSAR that increases every day, while a weekly gets 8% stop and a pSAR that incrases only on Fridays.

SPY: Buy it on Monday, since several pundits think it will go straight up for the next month.  MACD shows a bullish divergeance: the mid-April trough was not as deep as the mid-March trough.

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