Friday, 22 April 2011

Week of 2011 AL 21

My account rose 0.8% this week, while SPY rose 1.3%.  Over the last month my account has risen 1.5% while SPY has risen 1.8%.  At this rate, I would be lucky to reach 106% for the year, which seems inadequate for the amount of effort expended.  Hopefully there are further improvements that can be made to the stock-picking program.

And… we have our first losers from the new program!  EK is the first weekly-scan loser and DUG the first loser from the daily-scan. 

Markets are closed 2011 AL 22 for Good Friday.

Daily % gainStop %Realized
Gain
Symb size when Fri Mon Tue Wed Thu Beg End
 
UDN 12% MR22 0.5 -0.3 0.2 1.1 1.3 -1.3 -0.5
IAU 12% MR24 3.1 3.7 3.8 4.2 4.3 -1.5 -0.5
DRETF 16% MR30 -2.5 -1.8 -0.9 0.1 0.8
EK 6% AL04 1.1 0.2 -0.7 -1.3 -3.4 -3.4 -3.4 −3.3%
TS 6% AL04 -2.4 -5.3 -3.6 -2.4 -1.8 -8.3 -7.2
REX 6% AL04 1.3 0.6 -1.2 0.5 1.5 -8.4 -7.2
CYD 6% AL04 -2.0 -3.0 -2.5 1.1 5.6 -8.3 -8.3
PVH 6% AL04 -0.4 -1.0 -0.6 3.2 3.3 -8.3 -8.3
QTM 6% AL11 10.0 7.9 8.4 8.9 10.3 1.1 2.8
DUG 6% AL13 -2.4 0.6 -1.6 -5.8 -6.9 -4.0 -2.0 −5.1%
JBHT 6% AL18 -2.2 -2.8 -1.6 -1.2 -5.3 -2.9
LRN 6% AL20 1.3 0.8 -5.4 fail
ATML 6% AL21 1.6 -8.3 -6.5
KBALB 6% AL21 -3.6 -5.3 -5.3
SPY 0.0 -1.1 -0.6 0.8 1.3
me 0.0 -0.4 -0.3 0.4 0.8
(Average) −4.2%

UDN: Finally went up enough to sell ¼, but even so the stop is still underwater.

IAU: One more week until my stop is above water!

DUG: Each day I raised the stop, but in the end it didn’t matter: DUG gapped down and grabbed the full 5% initial risk, same as if I hadn’t adjusted the stop at all.  Oh well.  DUG is a gainer only 50% of the time and this wasn’t one of those times.

QTM: Sold ¼ on Monday, which raised my effective stop to +2.8%.  Hopefully this is enough stop-height to ensure that I won’t end up with a loss no matter what QTM does next.

ATML: This showed up on a daily scan!  I’ve had my eye on ATML for two months, wondering when the next good entry point would be.  I’ve given it an 8% trailing stop.  It went up the first day, so the stop automatically went up as well.  Nice!  But really I should recode my analysis program to see whether trailing stops are a good idea and how deep they should be.

DRETF: This week's gain figures for DRETF (but not for the account as a whole) include +0.5% for the dividend that was declared Monday.  Record-date will be AL29 and pay-date MA15 but probably a few days later for this "foreign" stock.

KBALB: Why is it that almost everything drops the day I buy it?  Maybe my analysis program should be looking a little further back, buying things that were good candidates two days ago rather than yesterday.

New rule: Don’t buy stocks that are below their 200-day (40-week) moving average.  This would eliminate EK and DUG but none of the others.  REX and QTM both rose above their 200-day averages during the week before I bought them, while PVH had passed through that goalpost two weeks before purchase.

IBIO: This was a buy-failure last week.  As it turned out, it would have been a -3.5% loser after four days.  Today’s price would be a -7.6% loss.  Good thing I didn’t give it a higher limit!

LRN: Buy-failure this week.  I held LRN for five days last month, gaining +0.8%.  When it showed up on the daily scan, I hoped for a repeat this month.  Oh well.

Weekly scan:  No pick this week.  I bought ATML instead.

Daily scan:  No pick for Monday, because there won’t be enough cash available until DUG and ¼UDN settle on Tuesday.


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