Week of 2011 JL 15

My account rose 0.4% this week, while SPY lost 2.0%.  Things are proceeding according to plan.  Really, 0.4% is a fine result for an average week (that would be 20%/yr), but it doesn’t look so hot after two weeks of no-change and six weeks of losses before that.

Politics: The debt-ceiling battle is proceeding as expected, so I predict a big drop in SPY next week.

			│	Daily % gain						│	Max % loss		│	Put Expiry
Symb	size	since	│	Fri	Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri	│	Beg	End	│
DRETF	21%	MR30	│	0.4	-0.4	-0.5	0.4	0.2	1.1	│			│	(none)
TLT	12%	MA25	│	-0.7	0.1	0.3	0.4	-0.3	-0.2	│	−1.7	−1.7	│	AU20
FRED	7%	MA31	│	-1.5	-3.9	-4.4	-3.4	-4.3	-3.5	│	−3.6	−3.6	│	AU20
TYP	6%	JN23	│	-15.5	-11.4	-8.4	-9.1	-6.8	-11.7	│	−9.3	−9.3	│	−9.3%
RWM	7%	JL01	│	-2.5	-0.8	-0.5	-1.1	-0.1	-1.3	│	−3.1	−3.1	│	AU20
UUP	8%	JL13	│				-0.2	-0.2	-0.4	│	−2.4	−2.4	│	(stop)
SCHA	1%	JL14	│					-0.5	0.1	│			│	(none)
SPY			│	0.0	-1.8	-2.2	-1.9	-2.6	-2.0	│			│
me			│	0.0	-0.1	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	│			│

DRETF: Still not quite recovered yet.

TLT: It’s taking a hit from the debt-ceiling scare.  Hopefully it will pop back up on August 2nd.  If not, I have the put.

TYP: Didn’t recover fast enough.  The put expired so I sold.  Probably would make money next week but I didn’t want that much risk.

RWM: Doing okay.  Has now mostly paid for its put.  Hopefully will go up a lot next week.

UUP: The US dollar seems to be at the bottom of its short-term oscillation.  I’ll probably hold this for a week or two.  This is a low risk/low reward trade.

SCHA: Preparing for the next upswing.  I had an order to buy when the market retraced 38% of its recent rise, which triggered.  I have more orders to buy at 50% and 63% retracements (the three usual retrace amounts).  Really, I don’t need a put on RWM, I just need small amounts of contrary investments.

SBB: To buy at Monday’s open.  I’m expecting a bloodbath on Wall St. next week, so I need more bearish stuff.