Monday, 18 July 2011

Week of 2011 JL 15

My account rose 0.4% this week, while SPY lost 2.0%.  Things are proceeding according to plan.  Really, 0.4% is a fine result for an average week (that would be 20%/yr), but it doesn’t look so hot after two weeks of no-change and six weeks of losses before that.

Politics: The debt-ceiling battle is proceeding as expected, so I predict a big drop in SPY next week.

Daily % gainMax % lossPut
Expiry
Symb size since Fri Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Beg End
 
DRETF 21% MR30 0.4 -0.4 -0.5 0.4 0.2 1.1 (none)
TLT 12% MA25 -0.7 0.1 0.3 0.4 -0.3 -0.2 −1.7 −1.7 AU20
FRED 7% MA31 -1.5 -3.9 -4.4 -3.4 -4.3 -3.5 −3.6 −3.6 AU20
TYP 6% JN23 -15.5 -11.4 -8.4 -9.1 -6.8 -11.7 −9.3 −9.3 −9.3%
RWM 7% JL01 -2.5 -0.8 -0.5 -1.1 -0.1 -1.3 −3.1 −3.1 AU20
UUP 8% JL13 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 −2.4 −2.4 (stop)
SCHA 1% JL14 -0.5 0.1 (none)
SPY 0.0 -1.8 -2.2 -1.9 -2.6 -2.0
me 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4

DRETF: Still not quite recovered yet.

TLT: It’s taking a hit from the debt-ceiling scare.  Hopefully it will pop back up on August 2nd.  If not, I have the put.

TYP: Didn’t recover fast enough.  The put expired so I sold.  Probably would make money next week but I didn’t want that much risk.

RWM: Doing okay.  Has now mostly paid for its put.  Hopefully will go up a lot next week.

UUP: The US dollar seems to be at the bottom of its short-term oscillation.  I’ll probably hold this for a week or two.  This is a low risk/low reward trade.

SCHA: Preparing for the next upswing.  I had an order to buy when the market retraced 38% of its recent rise, which triggered.  I have more orders to buy at 50% and 63% retracements (the three usual retrace amounts).  Really, I don’t need a put on RWM, I just need small amounts of contrary investments.

SBB: To buy at Monday’s open.  I’m expecting a bloodbath on Wall St. next week, so I need more bearish stuff.


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